Peering Through the Fog of Uncertainty: Out-of-Sample Forecasts of Post-Pandemic Tourism

This paper uses an augmented gravity model framework to investigate the historical impact of infectious diseases on international tourism and develops an out-of-sample prediction model. Using bilateral tourism flows among 38,184 pairs of countries during the period 1995–2017, I compare the forecasti...

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Veröffentlicht in:	Review of Economics 2024-04, Vol.75 (1), p.21-41
1. Verfasser:	Cevik, Serhan
Format:	Artikel
Sprache:	eng
Schlagworte:	C21 C23 F10 F11 F14 F47 gravity model infectious diseases out-of-sample forecasting predictability R12 tourism flows
Online-Zugang:	Volltext
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