Prediction of the effects of the top 10 synonymous mutations from 26645 SARS-CoV-2 genomes [version 2; peer review: 1 approved, 1 approved with reservations, 2 not approved]

Background: The emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) had led to a global pandemic since December 2019. SARS-CoV-2 is a single-stranded RNA virus, which mutates at a higher rate. Multiple works had been done to study nonsynonymous mutations, which change protein sequences. However, there is little study on the effects of SARS-CoV-2 synonymous mutations, which may affect viral fitness. This study aims to predict the effect of synonymous mutations on the SARS-CoV-2 genome. Methods: A total of 26645 SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequences retrieved from Global Initiative on Sharing all Influenza Data (GISAID) database were aligned using MAFFT. Then, the mutations and their respective frequency were identified. Multiple RNA secondary structures prediction tools, namely RNAfold, IPknot++ and MXfold2 were applied to predict the effect of the mutations on RNA secondary structure and their base pair probabilities was estimated using MutaRNA. Relative synonymous codon usage (RSCU) analysis was also performed to measure the codon usage bias (CUB) of SARS-CoV-2. Results: A total of 150 synonymous mutations were identified. The synonymous mutation identified with the highest frequency is C3037U mutation in the nsp3 of ORF1a. Of these top 10 highest frequency synonymous mutations, C913U, C3037U, U16176C and C18877U mutants show pronounced changes between wild type and mutant in all 3 RNA secondary structure prediction tools, suggesting these mutations may have some biological impact on viral fitness. These four mutations show changes in base pair probabilities. All mutations except U16176C change the codon to a more preferred codon, which may result in higher translation efficiency. Conclusion: Synonymous mutations in SARS-CoV-2 genome may affect RNA secondary structure, changing base pair probabilities and possibly resulting in a higher translation rate. However, lab experiments are required to validate the results obtained from prediction analysis.