Standardizing the Performance Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Models
Short-term wind power prediction is a primary requirement for efficient large-scale integration of wind generation in power systems and electricity markets. The choice of an appropriate prediction model among the numerous available models is not trivial, and has to be based on an objective evaluatio...
Gespeichert in:
| Veröffentlicht in: | Wind engineering 2005-12, Vol.29 (6), p.475-489 |
|---|---|
| Hauptverfasser: | , , , , |
| Format: | Artikel |
| Sprache: | eng |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Tags: |
Tag hinzufügen
Keine Tags, Fügen Sie den ersten Tag hinzu!
|
| container_end_page | 489 |
|---|---|
| container_issue | 6 |
| container_start_page | 475 |
| container_title | Wind engineering |
| container_volume | 29 |
| creator | Madsen, Henrik Pinson, Pierre Kariniotakis, George Nielsen, Henrik Aa Nielsen, Torben S. |
| description | Short-term wind power prediction is a primary requirement for efficient large-scale integration of wind generation in power systems and electricity markets. The choice of an appropriate prediction model among the numerous available models is not trivial, and has to be based on an objective evaluation of model performance. This paper proposes a standardized protocol for the evaluation of short-term windpower prediction systems. A number of reference prediction models are also described, and their use for performance comparison is analysed. The use of the protocol is demonstrated, using results from both on-shore and offshore wind farms. The work was developed in the frame of the Anemos project (EU R&D project) where the protocol has been used to evaluate more than 10 prediction systems. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1260/030952405776234599 |
| format | Article |
| fullrecord | <record><control><sourceid>jstor_cross</sourceid><recordid>TN_cdi_crossref_primary_10_1260_030952405776234599</recordid><sourceformat>XML</sourceformat><sourcesystem>PC</sourcesystem><jstor_id>43750430</jstor_id><sage_id>10.1260_030952405776234599</sage_id><sourcerecordid>43750430</sourcerecordid><originalsourceid>FETCH-LOGICAL-c460t-8efb6f221bc82102697d0da612af60bb98bbb9c140a107e5e9e1f2b5292c5f233</originalsourceid><addsrcrecordid>eNp9kNtKw0AQhhdRsFZfQBD2BWJnJ5tN9lJKPUDFQir2Lmz20Ka0WdlNFX16UyveCN7M3HzfP8NPyCWDa4YCRpCCzJBDlucCU55JeUQGCLxIOODimAz2QNITi1NyFuMagHHG-ICUZadao4JpPpt2SbuVpTMbnA9b1WpLJ29qs1Nd41vqHS1XPnTJ3IYtfWlaQ2f-3QY6C9Y0-pt59MZu4jk5cWoT7cXPHpLn28l8fJ9Mn-4exjfTRHMBXVJYVwuHyGpdIAMUMjdglGConIC6lkXdD804KAa5zay0zGGdoUSdOUzTIcFDrg4-xmBd9RqarQofFYNqX0v1t5ZeGh2kqJa2WvtdaPsf_zeuDsY6dj783uBpngFPIf0CltNsyw</addsrcrecordid><sourcetype>Aggregation Database</sourcetype><iscdi>true</iscdi><recordtype>article</recordtype></control><display><type>article</type><title>Standardizing the Performance Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Models</title><source>JSTOR Archive Collection A-Z Listing</source><source>SAGE Complete A-Z List</source><creator>Madsen, Henrik ; Pinson, Pierre ; Kariniotakis, George ; Nielsen, Henrik Aa ; Nielsen, Torben S.</creator><creatorcontrib>Madsen, Henrik ; Pinson, Pierre ; Kariniotakis, George ; Nielsen, Henrik Aa ; Nielsen, Torben S.</creatorcontrib><description>Short-term wind power prediction is a primary requirement for efficient large-scale integration of wind generation in power systems and electricity markets. The choice of an appropriate prediction model among the numerous available models is not trivial, and has to be based on an objective evaluation of model performance. This paper proposes a standardized protocol for the evaluation of short-term windpower prediction systems. A number of reference prediction models are also described, and their use for performance comparison is analysed. The use of the protocol is demonstrated, using results from both on-shore and offshore wind farms. The work was developed in the frame of the Anemos project (EU R&D project) where the protocol has been used to evaluate more than 10 prediction systems.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0309-524X</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 2048-402X</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1260/030952405776234599</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>London, England: Multi-Science Publishing Company</publisher><subject>Error rates ; Forecasting models ; Histograms ; Modeling ; Performance prediction ; Probability forecasts ; Weather forecasting ; Wind farms ; Wind power</subject><ispartof>Wind engineering, 2005-12, Vol.29 (6), p.475-489</ispartof><rights>2005 SAGE Publications</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c460t-8efb6f221bc82102697d0da612af60bb98bbb9c140a107e5e9e1f2b5292c5f233</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c460t-8efb6f221bc82102697d0da612af60bb98bbb9c140a107e5e9e1f2b5292c5f233</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/43750430$$EPDF$$P50$$Gjstor$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.jstor.org/stable/43750430$$EHTML$$P50$$Gjstor$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,780,784,803,21818,27923,27924,43620,43621,58016,58249</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Madsen, Henrik</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Pinson, Pierre</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kariniotakis, George</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Nielsen, Henrik Aa</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Nielsen, Torben S.</creatorcontrib><title>Standardizing the Performance Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Models</title><title>Wind engineering</title><description>Short-term wind power prediction is a primary requirement for efficient large-scale integration of wind generation in power systems and electricity markets. The choice of an appropriate prediction model among the numerous available models is not trivial, and has to be based on an objective evaluation of model performance. This paper proposes a standardized protocol for the evaluation of short-term windpower prediction systems. A number of reference prediction models are also described, and their use for performance comparison is analysed. The use of the protocol is demonstrated, using results from both on-shore and offshore wind farms. The work was developed in the frame of the Anemos project (EU R&D project) where the protocol has been used to evaluate more than 10 prediction systems.</description><subject>Error rates</subject><subject>Forecasting models</subject><subject>Histograms</subject><subject>Modeling</subject><subject>Performance prediction</subject><subject>Probability forecasts</subject><subject>Weather forecasting</subject><subject>Wind farms</subject><subject>Wind power</subject><issn>0309-524X</issn><issn>2048-402X</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2005</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><recordid>eNp9kNtKw0AQhhdRsFZfQBD2BWJnJ5tN9lJKPUDFQir2Lmz20Ka0WdlNFX16UyveCN7M3HzfP8NPyCWDa4YCRpCCzJBDlucCU55JeUQGCLxIOODimAz2QNITi1NyFuMagHHG-ICUZadao4JpPpt2SbuVpTMbnA9b1WpLJ29qs1Nd41vqHS1XPnTJ3IYtfWlaQ2f-3QY6C9Y0-pt59MZu4jk5cWoT7cXPHpLn28l8fJ9Mn-4exjfTRHMBXVJYVwuHyGpdIAMUMjdglGConIC6lkXdD804KAa5zay0zGGdoUSdOUzTIcFDrg4-xmBd9RqarQofFYNqX0v1t5ZeGh2kqJa2WvtdaPsf_zeuDsY6dj783uBpngFPIf0CltNsyw</recordid><startdate>20051201</startdate><enddate>20051201</enddate><creator>Madsen, Henrik</creator><creator>Pinson, Pierre</creator><creator>Kariniotakis, George</creator><creator>Nielsen, Henrik Aa</creator><creator>Nielsen, Torben S.</creator><general>Multi-Science Publishing Company</general><general>SAGE Publications</general><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20051201</creationdate><title>Standardizing the Performance Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Models</title><author>Madsen, Henrik ; Pinson, Pierre ; Kariniotakis, George ; Nielsen, Henrik Aa ; Nielsen, Torben S.</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c460t-8efb6f221bc82102697d0da612af60bb98bbb9c140a107e5e9e1f2b5292c5f233</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2005</creationdate><topic>Error rates</topic><topic>Forecasting models</topic><topic>Histograms</topic><topic>Modeling</topic><topic>Performance prediction</topic><topic>Probability forecasts</topic><topic>Weather forecasting</topic><topic>Wind farms</topic><topic>Wind power</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Madsen, Henrik</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Pinson, Pierre</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kariniotakis, George</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Nielsen, Henrik Aa</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Nielsen, Torben S.</creatorcontrib><collection>CrossRef</collection><jtitle>Wind engineering</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Madsen, Henrik</au><au>Pinson, Pierre</au><au>Kariniotakis, George</au><au>Nielsen, Henrik Aa</au><au>Nielsen, Torben S.</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Standardizing the Performance Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Models</atitle><jtitle>Wind engineering</jtitle><date>2005-12-01</date><risdate>2005</risdate><volume>29</volume><issue>6</issue><spage>475</spage><epage>489</epage><pages>475-489</pages><issn>0309-524X</issn><eissn>2048-402X</eissn><abstract>Short-term wind power prediction is a primary requirement for efficient large-scale integration of wind generation in power systems and electricity markets. The choice of an appropriate prediction model among the numerous available models is not trivial, and has to be based on an objective evaluation of model performance. This paper proposes a standardized protocol for the evaluation of short-term windpower prediction systems. A number of reference prediction models are also described, and their use for performance comparison is analysed. The use of the protocol is demonstrated, using results from both on-shore and offshore wind farms. The work was developed in the frame of the Anemos project (EU R&D project) where the protocol has been used to evaluate more than 10 prediction systems.</abstract><cop>London, England</cop><pub>Multi-Science Publishing Company</pub><doi>10.1260/030952405776234599</doi><tpages>15</tpages><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
| fulltext | fulltext |
| identifier | ISSN: 0309-524X |
| ispartof | Wind engineering, 2005-12, Vol.29 (6), p.475-489 |
| issn | 0309-524X 2048-402X |
| language | eng |
| recordid | cdi_crossref_primary_10_1260_030952405776234599 |
| source | JSTOR Archive Collection A-Z Listing; SAGE Complete A-Z List |
| subjects | Error rates Forecasting models Histograms Modeling Performance prediction Probability forecasts Weather forecasting Wind farms Wind power |
| title | Standardizing the Performance Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Models |
| url | https://sfx.bib-bvb.de/sfx_tum?ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info:ofi/enc:UTF-8&ctx_tim=2025-01-13T06%3A42%3A36IST&url_ver=Z39.88-2004&url_ctx_fmt=infofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&rfr_id=info:sid/primo.exlibrisgroup.com:primo3-Article-jstor_cross&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Standardizing%20the%20Performance%20Evaluation%20of%20Short-Term%20Wind%20Power%20Prediction%20Models&rft.jtitle=Wind%20engineering&rft.au=Madsen,%20Henrik&rft.date=2005-12-01&rft.volume=29&rft.issue=6&rft.spage=475&rft.epage=489&rft.pages=475-489&rft.issn=0309-524X&rft.eissn=2048-402X&rft_id=info:doi/10.1260/030952405776234599&rft_dat=%3Cjstor_cross%3E43750430%3C/jstor_cross%3E%3Curl%3E%3C/url%3E&disable_directlink=true&sfx.directlink=off&sfx.report_link=0&rft_id=info:oai/&rft_id=info:pmid/&rft_jstor_id=43750430&rft_sage_id=10.1260_030952405776234599&rfr_iscdi=true |