Risk factors for persistent abnormality on chest radiographs at 12-weeks post hospitalisation with PCR confirmed COVID-19

Background The long-term consequences of COVID-19 remain unclear. There is concern a proportion of patients will progress to develop pulmonary fibrosis. We aimed to assess the temporal change in CXR infiltrates in a cohort of patients following hospitalisation for COVID-19. Methods We conducted a single-centre prospective cohort study of patients admitted to University Hospital Southampton with confirmed SARS-CoV2 infection between 20th March and 3rd June 2020. Patients were approached for standard-of-care follow-up 12-weeks after hospitalisation. Inpatient and follow-up CXRs were scored by the assessing clinician for extent of pulmonary infiltrates; 0-4 per lung (Nil = 0, < 25% = 1, 25-50% = 2, 51-75% = 3, > 75% = 4). Results 101 patients with paired CXRs were included. Demographics: 53% male with a median (IQR) age 53.0 (45-63) years and length of stay 9 (5-17.5) days. The median CXR follow-up interval was 82 (77-86) days with median baseline and follow-up CXR scores of 4.0 (3-5) and 0.0 (0-1) respectively. 32% of patients had persistent CXR abnormality at 12-weeks. In multivariate analysis length of stay (LOS), smoking-status and obesity were identified as independent risk factors for persistent CXR abnormality. Serum LDH was significantly higher at baseline and at follow-up in patients with CXR abnormalities compared to those with resolution. A 5-point composite risk score (1-point each; LOS >= 15 days, Level 2/3 admission, LDH > 750 U/L, obesity and smoking-status) strongly predicted risk of persistent radiograph abnormality (0.81). Conclusion Persistent CXR abnormality 12-weeks post COVID-19 was common in this cohort. LOS, obesity, increased serum LDH, and smoking-status were risk factors for radiograph abnormality. These findings require further prospective validation.