Assessing the Differentiated Impacts of COVID-19 on the Immigration Flows to Europe

The immediate effects of COVID-19 on mortality, fertility, and internal and international migration have been widely studied. Particularly, immigration to high-income countries declined in 2020. However, the persistence of these declines and the extent to which they have impacted different migration...

Ausführliche Beschreibung

Gespeichert in:
Bibliographische Detailangaben
Veröffentlicht in:The International migration review 2024-04
Hauptverfasser: González-Leonardo, Miguel, Rowe, Francisco, Potančoková, Michaela, Goujon, Anne
Format: Artikel
Sprache:eng
Online-Zugang:Volltext
Tags: Tag hinzufügen
Keine Tags, Fügen Sie den ersten Tag hinzu!
container_end_page
container_issue
container_start_page
container_title The International migration review
container_volume
creator González-Leonardo, Miguel
Rowe, Francisco
Potančoková, Michaela
Goujon, Anne
description The immediate effects of COVID-19 on mortality, fertility, and internal and international migration have been widely studied. Particularly, immigration to high-income countries declined in 2020. However, the persistence of these declines and the extent to which they have impacted different migration flows are yet to be established. Drawing on immigration flows from Eurostat and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) time-series models, we assess the impact of COVID-19 on different immigration streams to seven European countries. We forecast counterfactual levels of immigration in 2020 and 2021 assuming no pandemic, and compare these estimates with actual immigration counts. We use regression modeling to explore the role of immigrants’ origin, distance, stringency measures, and gross domestic product (GDP) trends at origins and destinations as potential driving forces of changes in immigration during COVID-19. Our results show that, while there was a general decline in immigration during 2020, inflows returned to expected levels in 2021, except for Spain. However, drops in immigration flows from countries outside the Schengen Area to Europe persisted in 2021. Immigrants’ origin emerged as the main factor modulating immigration changes during the pandemic, and to a lesser extent stringency measures and GDP trends in destination countries. Contextual factors at origin seem to have been less important.
doi_str_mv 10.1177/01979183241242445
format Article
fullrecord <record><control><sourceid>crossref</sourceid><recordid>TN_cdi_crossref_primary_10_1177_01979183241242445</recordid><sourceformat>XML</sourceformat><sourcesystem>PC</sourcesystem><sourcerecordid>10_1177_01979183241242445</sourcerecordid><originalsourceid>FETCH-LOGICAL-c197t-d5e611b6b4179cc672c77ecc30ea14efb8898ab875ba46b9c1b9a0761cb30db83</originalsourceid><addsrcrecordid>eNplUM1KxDAYDKJgXX0Ab3mBaL4m7dccl-6uFhb24M-1JGm6VrY_JBHx7W3Vm3MZhhmGYQi5BX4HgHjPQaGCQqQSUplKmZ2RBFAiQ4HqnCSLz5bAJbkK4Z3PQBQJeVqH4ELohiONb45uurZ13g2x09E1tOonbWOgY0vLw2u1YaDoOPwkq77vjl7Hbta70_gZaBzp9sOPk7smF60-BXfzxyvysts-l49sf3ioyvWe2XlMZE3mcgCTGwmorM0xtYjOWsGdBulaUxSq0KbAzGiZG2XBKM0xB2sEb0whVgR-e60fQ_CurSff9dp_1cDr5ZX63yviG7dOVHA</addsrcrecordid><sourcetype>Aggregation Database</sourcetype><iscdi>true</iscdi><recordtype>article</recordtype></control><display><type>article</type><title>Assessing the Differentiated Impacts of COVID-19 on the Immigration Flows to Europe</title><source>SAGE Complete</source><creator>González-Leonardo, Miguel ; Rowe, Francisco ; Potančoková, Michaela ; Goujon, Anne</creator><creatorcontrib>González-Leonardo, Miguel ; Rowe, Francisco ; Potančoková, Michaela ; Goujon, Anne</creatorcontrib><description>The immediate effects of COVID-19 on mortality, fertility, and internal and international migration have been widely studied. Particularly, immigration to high-income countries declined in 2020. However, the persistence of these declines and the extent to which they have impacted different migration flows are yet to be established. Drawing on immigration flows from Eurostat and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) time-series models, we assess the impact of COVID-19 on different immigration streams to seven European countries. We forecast counterfactual levels of immigration in 2020 and 2021 assuming no pandemic, and compare these estimates with actual immigration counts. We use regression modeling to explore the role of immigrants’ origin, distance, stringency measures, and gross domestic product (GDP) trends at origins and destinations as potential driving forces of changes in immigration during COVID-19. Our results show that, while there was a general decline in immigration during 2020, inflows returned to expected levels in 2021, except for Spain. However, drops in immigration flows from countries outside the Schengen Area to Europe persisted in 2021. Immigrants’ origin emerged as the main factor modulating immigration changes during the pandemic, and to a lesser extent stringency measures and GDP trends in destination countries. Contextual factors at origin seem to have been less important.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0197-9183</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1747-7379</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1177/01979183241242445</identifier><language>eng</language><ispartof>The International migration review, 2024-04</ispartof><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c197t-d5e611b6b4179cc672c77ecc30ea14efb8898ab875ba46b9c1b9a0761cb30db83</cites><orcidid>0000-0003-2508-7977</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><link.rule.ids>314,776,780,27903,27904</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>González-Leonardo, Miguel</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Rowe, Francisco</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Potančoková, Michaela</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Goujon, Anne</creatorcontrib><title>Assessing the Differentiated Impacts of COVID-19 on the Immigration Flows to Europe</title><title>The International migration review</title><description>The immediate effects of COVID-19 on mortality, fertility, and internal and international migration have been widely studied. Particularly, immigration to high-income countries declined in 2020. However, the persistence of these declines and the extent to which they have impacted different migration flows are yet to be established. Drawing on immigration flows from Eurostat and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) time-series models, we assess the impact of COVID-19 on different immigration streams to seven European countries. We forecast counterfactual levels of immigration in 2020 and 2021 assuming no pandemic, and compare these estimates with actual immigration counts. We use regression modeling to explore the role of immigrants’ origin, distance, stringency measures, and gross domestic product (GDP) trends at origins and destinations as potential driving forces of changes in immigration during COVID-19. Our results show that, while there was a general decline in immigration during 2020, inflows returned to expected levels in 2021, except for Spain. However, drops in immigration flows from countries outside the Schengen Area to Europe persisted in 2021. Immigrants’ origin emerged as the main factor modulating immigration changes during the pandemic, and to a lesser extent stringency measures and GDP trends in destination countries. Contextual factors at origin seem to have been less important.</description><issn>0197-9183</issn><issn>1747-7379</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2024</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><recordid>eNplUM1KxDAYDKJgXX0Ab3mBaL4m7dccl-6uFhb24M-1JGm6VrY_JBHx7W3Vm3MZhhmGYQi5BX4HgHjPQaGCQqQSUplKmZ2RBFAiQ4HqnCSLz5bAJbkK4Z3PQBQJeVqH4ELohiONb45uurZ13g2x09E1tOonbWOgY0vLw2u1YaDoOPwkq77vjl7Hbta70_gZaBzp9sOPk7smF60-BXfzxyvysts-l49sf3ioyvWe2XlMZE3mcgCTGwmorM0xtYjOWsGdBulaUxSq0KbAzGiZG2XBKM0xB2sEb0whVgR-e60fQ_CurSff9dp_1cDr5ZX63yviG7dOVHA</recordid><startdate>20240430</startdate><enddate>20240430</enddate><creator>González-Leonardo, Miguel</creator><creator>Rowe, Francisco</creator><creator>Potančoková, Michaela</creator><creator>Goujon, Anne</creator><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2508-7977</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>20240430</creationdate><title>Assessing the Differentiated Impacts of COVID-19 on the Immigration Flows to Europe</title><author>González-Leonardo, Miguel ; Rowe, Francisco ; Potančoková, Michaela ; Goujon, Anne</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c197t-d5e611b6b4179cc672c77ecc30ea14efb8898ab875ba46b9c1b9a0761cb30db83</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2024</creationdate><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>González-Leonardo, Miguel</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Rowe, Francisco</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Potančoková, Michaela</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Goujon, Anne</creatorcontrib><collection>CrossRef</collection><jtitle>The International migration review</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>González-Leonardo, Miguel</au><au>Rowe, Francisco</au><au>Potančoková, Michaela</au><au>Goujon, Anne</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Assessing the Differentiated Impacts of COVID-19 on the Immigration Flows to Europe</atitle><jtitle>The International migration review</jtitle><date>2024-04-30</date><risdate>2024</risdate><issn>0197-9183</issn><eissn>1747-7379</eissn><abstract>The immediate effects of COVID-19 on mortality, fertility, and internal and international migration have been widely studied. Particularly, immigration to high-income countries declined in 2020. However, the persistence of these declines and the extent to which they have impacted different migration flows are yet to be established. Drawing on immigration flows from Eurostat and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) time-series models, we assess the impact of COVID-19 on different immigration streams to seven European countries. We forecast counterfactual levels of immigration in 2020 and 2021 assuming no pandemic, and compare these estimates with actual immigration counts. We use regression modeling to explore the role of immigrants’ origin, distance, stringency measures, and gross domestic product (GDP) trends at origins and destinations as potential driving forces of changes in immigration during COVID-19. Our results show that, while there was a general decline in immigration during 2020, inflows returned to expected levels in 2021, except for Spain. However, drops in immigration flows from countries outside the Schengen Area to Europe persisted in 2021. Immigrants’ origin emerged as the main factor modulating immigration changes during the pandemic, and to a lesser extent stringency measures and GDP trends in destination countries. Contextual factors at origin seem to have been less important.</abstract><doi>10.1177/01979183241242445</doi><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2508-7977</orcidid></addata></record>
fulltext fulltext
identifier ISSN: 0197-9183
ispartof The International migration review, 2024-04
issn 0197-9183
1747-7379
language eng
recordid cdi_crossref_primary_10_1177_01979183241242445
source SAGE Complete
title Assessing the Differentiated Impacts of COVID-19 on the Immigration Flows to Europe
url https://sfx.bib-bvb.de/sfx_tum?ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info:ofi/enc:UTF-8&ctx_tim=2025-01-26T11%3A19%3A52IST&url_ver=Z39.88-2004&url_ctx_fmt=infofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&rfr_id=info:sid/primo.exlibrisgroup.com:primo3-Article-crossref&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Assessing%20the%20Differentiated%20Impacts%20of%20COVID-19%20on%20the%20Immigration%20Flows%20to%20Europe&rft.jtitle=The%20International%20migration%20review&rft.au=Gonz%C3%A1lez-Leonardo,%20Miguel&rft.date=2024-04-30&rft.issn=0197-9183&rft.eissn=1747-7379&rft_id=info:doi/10.1177/01979183241242445&rft_dat=%3Ccrossref%3E10_1177_01979183241242445%3C/crossref%3E%3Curl%3E%3C/url%3E&disable_directlink=true&sfx.directlink=off&sfx.report_link=0&rft_id=info:oai/&rft_id=info:pmid/&rfr_iscdi=true