Future carbon storage in harvested wood products from Ontario's Crown forests

This analysis quantifies projected carbon (C) storage in harvested wood products (HWP) from Ontario's Crown forests. The large-scale forest C budget model, FORCARB-ON, was applied to estimate HWP C stock changes using the production approach defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Harvested wood volume was converted to C mass and allocated to four HWP end-use categories: in use, landfill, energy, and emission. The redistribution of C over time among HWP end-use categories was calculated using a product age-based C-distribution matrix. Carbon emissions for harvest, transport, and manufacturing, as well as emission reductions from the use of wood in place of other construction materials and fossil fuels were not accounted for. Considering the wood harvested from Ontario Crown forests from 1951 to 2000 and the projected harvest from 2001 to 2100, C storage in HWP in use and in landfills is projected to increase by 3.6 Mt·year-1 during 2001-2100, with an additional 1.2 Mt·year-1 burned for energy. Annual additions of C projected for HWP far outweighs the annual increase of C storage in Ontario's Crown forests managed for harvest, which is projected to increase by 0.1 Mt·year-1 during the same period. These projections indicate that regulated harvest in Ontario results in a steadily increasing C sink in HWP and forests. Uncertainties in HWP C estimation are also discussed.