When the Expected Value Is Not Expected: A Conservative Approach

The takeoff point in this paper is a random variable X for which large positive values are desired. When its probability distribution is highly skewed, the possibility of a long fat-tailed distribution can lead to an expected value, μ = E[X], which is unduly optimistic. For the reverse case when sma...

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Veröffentlicht in:	IEEE transactions on systems, man, and cybernetics. Systems man, and cybernetics. Systems, 2017-09, Vol.47 (9), p.2454-2466
Hauptverfasser:	Malekpour, Shirzad, Barmish, B. Ross
Format:	Artikel
Sprache:	eng
Schlagworte:	Earthquakes Expected values Mathematical analysis Mission critical systems Pessimism Probability Probability distribution Random variables Risk risk analysis Robustness Seismic measurements Skewed distributions statistical distributions uncertain systems Variance
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