The missing climate forcing

Observed climate change is consistent with radiative forcings on several time-scales for which the dominant forcings are known, ranging from the few years after a large volcanic eruption to glacial-to-interglacial changes. In the period with most detailed data, 1979 to the present, climate observations contain clear signatures of both natural and anthropogenic forcings. But in the full period since the industrial revolution began, global warming is only about half of that expected due to the principal forcing, increasing greenhouse gases. The direct radiative effect of anthropogenic aerosols contributes only little towards resolving this discrepancy. Unforced climate variability is an unlikely explanation. We argue on the basis of several lines of indirect evidence that aerosol effects on clouds have caused a large negative forcing, at least −1 Wm−2, which has substantially offset greenhouse warming. The tasks of observing this forcing and determining the microphysical mechanisms at its basis are exceptionally difficult, but they are essential for the prognosis of future climate change.