When criminality begets crime: the role of elected politicians in India

This article examines the effect of electing criminally accused politicians on crime in India, considering the severity of their alleged offenses. Employing an instrumental variable approach that exploits the quasi-random variation in outcomes of close elections between candidates with and without criminal accusations, we find that a standard deviation (SD) increase in the share of criminally accused leaders in institutionally weaker states leads to a 0.05 SD rise in yearly reported crimes. Leaders accused of serious crimes have a more pronounced effect on crime outcomes, including crimes against women. Crucially, leaders accused of serious crimes also exert a negative influence on female labor force participation, underlining their detrimental impact on socioeconomic welfare. Our findings highlight the significance of considering the nature and severity of criminal accusations when evaluating the impact of criminally accused politicians on crime and society.