Prognostic and predictive value of an autophagy-related signature for early relapse in stages I-III colon cancer

We postulated that expression differences of autophagy-related genes are instrumental in stratifying the risk of early relapse after surgery and evaluating the prognosis of patients with stages I-III colon cancer. Therefore, propensity score matching analysis was performed between patients in early relapse group and long-term survival group from GSE39582 test series and internal validation series. Using Cox regression model, a nine-autophagy-related signature (CAPN2, ATG16L2, TP63, SIRT1, RPS6KB1, PEX3, ATG5, UVRAG, NAF1) was established to classify patients into those at high risk of early relapse (high-risk group), and those at low risk of early relapse (low-risk group). Relapse-free survival (RFS) was significantly different between the two groups in test [hazard ratio (HR): 2.019, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.362-2.992, P < 0.001], internal validation (HR: 2.464, 95% CI: 1.196-5.079, P < 0.001) and another two external validation series (GSE14333-HR: 2.250, 95% CI: 1.227-4.126, P = 0.007; GSE33113-HR: 5.552, 95% CI: 2.098-14.693, P < 0.001). Then, based on RFS, we developed a nomogram, integrating the nine-autophagy-related classifier and four clinicopathological risk factors to evaluate prognosis of stages I-III colon cancer patients. Time-dependent receiver operating curve at 2 years showed that the integrated signature (area under curve = 0.758) had better prognostic accuracy than American Joint Committee on Cancer TNM stage (area under curve = 0.620). In conclusion, we identified and built a nine-autophagy-related signature, a credible approach to early relapse prediction in stages I-III colon cancer patients, which can assist physicians in devising more efficient therapeutic strategies.