Global convection-permitting model improves subseasonal forecast of plum rain around Japan
In 2020 early summer, a historically severe rainy season struck East Asia, causing extensive damage to life and property. Subseasonal forecast of this event challenges the limits of rainy season predictability. Employing the integrated atmospheric model across scales and the Sunway supercomputer, we...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Environmental research letters 2024-10, Vol.19 (10), p.104021 |
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| creator | Gu, Jun Zhao, Chun Xu, Mingyue Feng, Jiawang Li, Gudongze Zhao, Yongxuan Hao, Xiaoyu Chen, Junshi An, Hong |
| description | In 2020 early summer, a historically severe rainy season struck East Asia, causing extensive damage to life and property. Subseasonal forecast of this event challenges the limits of rainy season predictability. Employing the integrated atmospheric model across scales and the Sunway supercomputer, we conducted ensemble one-month forecasts at global 3 km, variable 4–60 km, and global 60 km resolutions. The global convection-permitting forecast accurately captures the rainband, while other forecasts exhibited northward and weaker shifts due to the northward shifts of the atmospheric rivers over Japan, attributed to intensified Western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH). Further, the double-ITCZ-like tropical rainfall pattern in Western Pacific in global convection-permitting forecast contributes to a more accurate WNPSH and rainband. In contrast, other forecasts show a single-ITCZ-like pattern in Western Pacific, leading to a northward-shifted WNPSH and rainband, advocating the importance of accurately representing tropical convections, as they can significantly affect mid-/high-latitude weather and climate. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1088/1748-9326/ad71e2 |
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| subjects | Convection global convection-permitting model high resolution plum rain Property damage Rainfall Rainy season subseasonal forecast |
| title | Global convection-permitting model improves subseasonal forecast of plum rain around Japan |
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