A Theory of Intensity, Electoral Competition, and Costly Political Action

Individuals vary in how intensely they care about political outcomes. Despite attention to intensity in studies of representation and public opinion, the study of elections has paid less attention to the strategic dynamics of intensity. I present a theory that brings intensity to electoral competition. I investigate the preelection actions of voters and the response of candidates through a game-theoretic model. Because intensity is unobserved and subject to misrepresentation, voters communicate intensity through costly political action. Candidates respond to voter actions by sometimes proposing policy opposed by a low-intensity majority. The theory suggests when and why citizens choose costly action and expression, describes why citizens might prefer candidates with negative traits such as a history of misconduct, indicates when majoritarian systems might implement nonmajoritarian policy, shows when costly political action is welfare enhancing, and might help scholars reason about how candidates learn about voter interests.