Gasoline price predictability in a border metropolitan economy
This study examines the predictability of local retail gasoline prices in the El Paso metropolitan economy. Given its location on the border with Mexico, the potential influence of cross-border economic variables on gasoline prices in El Paso is taken into account. The study uses monthly frequency t...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Applied economics letters 2015-04, Vol.22 (6), p.499-502 |
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| container_title | Applied economics letters |
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| creator | Fullerton, Thomas M. Jimenez, Alan Liu, Yu Walke, Adam G. |
| description | This study examines the predictability of local retail gasoline prices in the El Paso metropolitan economy. Given its location on the border with Mexico, the potential influence of cross-border economic variables on gasoline prices in El Paso is taken into account. The study uses monthly frequency time series data from 2001 to 2013. Because historical consumption data are not available, the error correction econometric model employs a reduced form equation in which gasoline prices are functionally dependent on several explanatory variables. Out-of-sample price simulations are compared against random walk and random walk with drift benchmarks. Results obtained indicate that the econometric approach performs fairly well relative to both benchmarks. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1080/13504851.2014.952886 |
| format | Article |
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Given its location on the border with Mexico, the potential influence of cross-border economic variables on gasoline prices in El Paso is taken into account. The study uses monthly frequency time series data from 2001 to 2013. Because historical consumption data are not available, the error correction econometric model employs a reduced form equation in which gasoline prices are functionally dependent on several explanatory variables. Out-of-sample price simulations are compared against random walk and random walk with drift benchmarks. 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Given its location on the border with Mexico, the potential influence of cross-border economic variables on gasoline prices in El Paso is taken into account. The study uses monthly frequency time series data from 2001 to 2013. Because historical consumption data are not available, the error correction econometric model employs a reduced form equation in which gasoline prices are functionally dependent on several explanatory variables. Out-of-sample price simulations are compared against random walk and random walk with drift benchmarks. Results obtained indicate that the econometric approach performs fairly well relative to both benchmarks.</description><subject>applied econometrics</subject><subject>Benchmarking</subject><subject>border economics</subject><subject>Economic analysis</subject><subject>Economic crisis</subject><subject>Foreign aid</subject><subject>gasoline price forecasts</subject><subject>Legislatures</subject><subject>Metropolitan areas</subject><subject>Mexico</subject><subject>Oil price</subject><subject>Petrol</subject><subject>Studies</subject><subject>Women</subject><issn>1350-4851</issn><issn>1466-4291</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2015</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><recordid>eNp9kE1LxDAQhoMouK7-Aw8FL1665qv5uCiy6CoseNFzSJMUsrTJmnSR_nuzVC8evMwMzPO-zLwAXCO4QlDAO0QaSEWDVhgiupINFoKdgAWijNUUS3Ra5oLUR-YcXOS8gxAyIdkC3G90jr0Prtonb47VWW9G3frej1PlQ6WrNibrUjW4McV9gUcdKmdiiMN0Cc463Wd39dOX4OP56X39Um_fNq_rx21tGo7HmvGm1dbQlrKWI0KJhpjb1lBpMGayLFhDiBVcY4KNRVpKzlnnsOlaDC0hS3A7--5T_Dy4PKrBZ-P6XgcXD1kh1mDChECioDd_0F08pFCuKxTlFDEpWaHoTJkUc06uU-X_QadJIaiOoarfUNUxVDWHWmQPs8yHLqZBf8XUWzXqqY-pSzoYnxX51-EbGJt8xg</recordid><startdate>20150413</startdate><enddate>20150413</enddate><creator>Fullerton, Thomas M.</creator><creator>Jimenez, Alan</creator><creator>Liu, Yu</creator><creator>Walke, Adam G.</creator><general>Routledge</general><general>Taylor & Francis LLC</general><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>8BJ</scope><scope>FQK</scope><scope>JBE</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20150413</creationdate><title>Gasoline price predictability in a border metropolitan economy</title><author>Fullerton, Thomas M. ; Jimenez, Alan ; Liu, Yu ; Walke, Adam G.</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c572t-675badc4b46b71343a027dbc49c2269c4b6533d87a232cd1a99776fe2cfb20d33</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2015</creationdate><topic>applied econometrics</topic><topic>Benchmarking</topic><topic>border economics</topic><topic>Economic analysis</topic><topic>Economic crisis</topic><topic>Foreign aid</topic><topic>gasoline price forecasts</topic><topic>Legislatures</topic><topic>Metropolitan areas</topic><topic>Mexico</topic><topic>Oil price</topic><topic>Petrol</topic><topic>Studies</topic><topic>Women</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Fullerton, Thomas M.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Jimenez, Alan</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Liu, Yu</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Walke, Adam G.</creatorcontrib><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences (IBSS)</collection><collection>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences</collection><collection>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences</collection><jtitle>Applied economics letters</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Fullerton, Thomas M.</au><au>Jimenez, Alan</au><au>Liu, Yu</au><au>Walke, Adam G.</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Gasoline price predictability in a border metropolitan economy</atitle><jtitle>Applied economics letters</jtitle><date>2015-04-13</date><risdate>2015</risdate><volume>22</volume><issue>6</issue><spage>499</spage><epage>502</epage><pages>499-502</pages><issn>1350-4851</issn><eissn>1466-4291</eissn><abstract>This study examines the predictability of local retail gasoline prices in the El Paso metropolitan economy. Given its location on the border with Mexico, the potential influence of cross-border economic variables on gasoline prices in El Paso is taken into account. The study uses monthly frequency time series data from 2001 to 2013. Because historical consumption data are not available, the error correction econometric model employs a reduced form equation in which gasoline prices are functionally dependent on several explanatory variables. Out-of-sample price simulations are compared against random walk and random walk with drift benchmarks. Results obtained indicate that the econometric approach performs fairly well relative to both benchmarks.</abstract><cop>London</cop><pub>Routledge</pub><doi>10.1080/13504851.2014.952886</doi><tpages>4</tpages></addata></record> |
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| ispartof | Applied economics letters, 2015-04, Vol.22 (6), p.499-502 |
| issn | 1350-4851 1466-4291 |
| language | eng |
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| source | EBSCOhost Business Source Complete |
| subjects | applied econometrics Benchmarking border economics Economic analysis Economic crisis Foreign aid gasoline price forecasts Legislatures Metropolitan areas Mexico Oil price Petrol Studies Women |
| title | Gasoline price predictability in a border metropolitan economy |
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