Examining Prosecutorial Discretion in Federal Criminal Cases: Legal and Extra-Legal Determinants of Declination and Charge Change Decisions

From 2000 to 2010, the federal criminal caseload increased roughly 50% with a large portion of this increase attributed to the rise in immigration prosecutions. These changes coupled with recent Supreme Court decisions rendering the guidelines advisory have renewed calls for research examining prosecutorial discretion, particularly with respect to the influence of legal and extralegal factors on charging and bargaining decisions. This study utilizes data (2002-2010) from the Federal Justice Statistics Program database housed within the National Archive of Criminal Justice Data (NACJD). More specifically, the current research examines prosecutorial decisions to decline to charge federal arrestees and to make any changes to the charge from the arresting offense. Results from the multilevel, multivariate models reveal that both extra-legal and legal factors were influential of these decisions. Disaggregated models also revealed considerable variation across different offense types. Finally, districts with higher caseloads had lower odds of a prosecutorial declination and charge change.