Fertility in Bangladesh: Facts and Fancies

Based on data from a 1969 national fertility survey in Bangladesh, the crude birth rate was estimated at 42, with estimates for urban residents slightly lower than those for rural residents The total marital fertility rate was found to be 6·93. For women over 40 years of age the average cumulative number of live births was 6·5, with 4·7 surviving at the time of interview (72 per cent) The infant mortality rate for 1966-68 was 113, which appears to be somewhat under-reported when compared with estimates made by other investigators. There is no indication from the survey findings of a structural change in the age of marriage. Analysis of the pregnancy history indicates a statistically significant decline in all age-specific fertility rates - about ten per cent over the period 1960-68. However, the cohort fertility rates indicate that recent cohorts have experienced higher fertility at younger ages than their predecessors. Our estimates are higher than others (e g by the Cholera Research Laboratory for 1967-69 and Schultz) and although these estimates indicate similar declining trends, we cannot conclude with confidence that there has been a real decline in fertility, mainly because the difference in levels of the various estimates is more than the range of the apparent decline. If there is any decline, we believe it could be largely biological, and result from reduced infant and child mortality which acts through prolongation of lactation and thus an extension of amenorrhoea to increase the interval between births.