Comparative performances of measures of consumer and economic sentiment in forecasting consumption: a multi-country analysis
This paper seeks to compare the capabilities of assorted measures of consumer and economic sentiment in predicting the growth of household expenditure. An analysis of quarterly data on five European countries shows that for none of these can the model which incorporates the EU's headline consum...
Gespeichert in:
Veröffentlicht in: | Applied economics 2020-02, Vol.52 (10), p.1088-1104 |
---|---|
Hauptverfasser: | , |
Format: | Artikel |
Sprache: | eng |
Schlagworte: | |
Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
Tags: |
Tag hinzufügen
Keine Tags, Fügen Sie den ersten Tag hinzu!
|
container_end_page | 1104 |
---|---|
container_issue | 10 |
container_start_page | 1088 |
container_title | Applied economics |
container_volume | 52 |
creator | Gausden, Robert Hasan, Mohammad S. |
description | This paper seeks to compare the capabilities of assorted measures of consumer and economic sentiment in predicting the growth of household expenditure. An analysis of quarterly data on five European countries shows that for none of these can the model which incorporates the EU's headline consumer confidence indicator be deemed to be significantly inferior to any of its seven rivals. However, the rankings of the sentiment variables are seen to be influenced by: the proportion of total spending by households that is devoted to durable goods; and the nature of the behaviour of consumption over the forecast interval. |
doi_str_mv | 10.1080/00036846.2019.1659489 |
format | Article |
fullrecord | <record><control><sourceid>proquest_cross</sourceid><recordid>TN_cdi_crossref_primary_10_1080_00036846_2019_1659489</recordid><sourceformat>XML</sourceformat><sourcesystem>PC</sourcesystem><sourcerecordid>2352364145</sourcerecordid><originalsourceid>FETCH-LOGICAL-c475t-23e709a6f89e9e80e717600151861b7d03102f2108552aed4a96914b1b9f8aaf3</originalsourceid><addsrcrecordid>eNqNkU2LFDEQhoO44LjrTxACHqVn89XpxJPSrLqw4GU9h0xPRbJ0J22Sdhnwx2_aHvUmXvIBz1tUPYXQa0r2lChyTQjhUgm5Z4TqPZWtFko_QzsqpGwEU_w52q1Ms0Iv0MucH-qXMt7t0M8-TrNNtvgfgGdILqbJhgEyjg5PYPOStvcQQ14mSNiGI4b6i5MfcIZQ_FQP7AOuWRhsLj58O-Nz8TG8wxZPy1h8M8QllHSqJex4yj5foQtnxwyvzvcl-vrx5r7_3Nx9-XTbf7hrBtG1pWEcOqKtdEqDBkWgo52sA7RUSXrojoRTwhyrLtqWWTgKq6Wm4kAP2ilrHb9Eb7a6c4rfF8jFPMQl1SayYbxlXAoq2kq1GzWkmHMCZ-bkJ5tOhhKzija_RZtVtDmLrjm85VYrPv9NSS14BRmvyNsNeYRDdHnwUBX_AWtZoYRutSbrXiqt_p_ufbGr5X51W6Pvt6gPvzb5GNN4NMWexphcqout_fF_j_METqqxtA</addsrcrecordid><sourcetype>Aggregation Database</sourcetype><iscdi>true</iscdi><recordtype>article</recordtype><pqid>2352364145</pqid></control><display><type>article</type><title>Comparative performances of measures of consumer and economic sentiment in forecasting consumption: a multi-country analysis</title><source>Business Source Complete</source><source>Web of Science - Social Sciences Citation Index – 2020<img src="https://exlibris-pub.s3.amazonaws.com/fromwos-v2.jpg" /></source><creator>Gausden, Robert ; Hasan, Mohammad S.</creator><creatorcontrib>Gausden, Robert ; Hasan, Mohammad S.</creatorcontrib><description>This paper seeks to compare the capabilities of assorted measures of consumer and economic sentiment in predicting the growth of household expenditure. An analysis of quarterly data on five European countries shows that for none of these can the model which incorporates the EU's headline consumer confidence indicator be deemed to be significantly inferior to any of its seven rivals. However, the rankings of the sentiment variables are seen to be influenced by: the proportion of total spending by households that is devoted to durable goods; and the nature of the behaviour of consumption over the forecast interval.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0003-6846</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1466-4283</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2019.1659489</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>ABINGDON: Routledge</publisher><subject>Business & Economics ; Consumer attitudes ; consumer confidence ; consumer survey ; Consumption ; Durable goods ; Economic analysis ; Economic theory ; Economics ; Expenditures ; Forecasting ; Household expenditure ; Households ; model confidence set ; Social Sciences</subject><ispartof>Applied economics, 2020-02, Vol.52 (10), p.1088-1104</ispartof><rights>2019 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group 2019</rights><rights>2019 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>true</woscitedreferencessubscribed><woscitedreferencescount>3</woscitedreferencescount><woscitedreferencesoriginalsourcerecordid>wos000484959900001</woscitedreferencesoriginalsourcerecordid><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c475t-23e709a6f89e9e80e717600151861b7d03102f2108552aed4a96914b1b9f8aaf3</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c475t-23e709a6f89e9e80e717600151861b7d03102f2108552aed4a96914b1b9f8aaf3</cites><orcidid>0000-0003-2013-9504</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><link.rule.ids>315,782,786,27931,27932,28256</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Gausden, Robert</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hasan, Mohammad S.</creatorcontrib><title>Comparative performances of measures of consumer and economic sentiment in forecasting consumption: a multi-country analysis</title><title>Applied economics</title><addtitle>APPL ECON</addtitle><description>This paper seeks to compare the capabilities of assorted measures of consumer and economic sentiment in predicting the growth of household expenditure. An analysis of quarterly data on five European countries shows that for none of these can the model which incorporates the EU's headline consumer confidence indicator be deemed to be significantly inferior to any of its seven rivals. However, the rankings of the sentiment variables are seen to be influenced by: the proportion of total spending by households that is devoted to durable goods; and the nature of the behaviour of consumption over the forecast interval.</description><subject>Business & Economics</subject><subject>Consumer attitudes</subject><subject>consumer confidence</subject><subject>consumer survey</subject><subject>Consumption</subject><subject>Durable goods</subject><subject>Economic analysis</subject><subject>Economic theory</subject><subject>Economics</subject><subject>Expenditures</subject><subject>Forecasting</subject><subject>Household expenditure</subject><subject>Households</subject><subject>model confidence set</subject><subject>Social Sciences</subject><issn>0003-6846</issn><issn>1466-4283</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2020</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>ARHDP</sourceid><recordid>eNqNkU2LFDEQhoO44LjrTxACHqVn89XpxJPSrLqw4GU9h0xPRbJ0J22Sdhnwx2_aHvUmXvIBz1tUPYXQa0r2lChyTQjhUgm5Z4TqPZWtFko_QzsqpGwEU_w52q1Ms0Iv0MucH-qXMt7t0M8-TrNNtvgfgGdILqbJhgEyjg5PYPOStvcQQ14mSNiGI4b6i5MfcIZQ_FQP7AOuWRhsLj58O-Nz8TG8wxZPy1h8M8QllHSqJex4yj5foQtnxwyvzvcl-vrx5r7_3Nx9-XTbf7hrBtG1pWEcOqKtdEqDBkWgo52sA7RUSXrojoRTwhyrLtqWWTgKq6Wm4kAP2ilrHb9Eb7a6c4rfF8jFPMQl1SayYbxlXAoq2kq1GzWkmHMCZ-bkJ5tOhhKzija_RZtVtDmLrjm85VYrPv9NSS14BRmvyNsNeYRDdHnwUBX_AWtZoYRutSbrXiqt_p_ufbGr5X51W6Pvt6gPvzb5GNN4NMWexphcqout_fF_j_METqqxtA</recordid><startdate>20200225</startdate><enddate>20200225</enddate><creator>Gausden, Robert</creator><creator>Hasan, Mohammad S.</creator><general>Routledge</general><general>Taylor & Francis</general><general>Taylor & Francis Ltd</general><scope>17B</scope><scope>ARHDP</scope><scope>BLEPL</scope><scope>DVR</scope><scope>EGQ</scope><scope>OQ6</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>8BJ</scope><scope>FQK</scope><scope>JBE</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2013-9504</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>20200225</creationdate><title>Comparative performances of measures of consumer and economic sentiment in forecasting consumption: a multi-country analysis</title><author>Gausden, Robert ; Hasan, Mohammad S.</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c475t-23e709a6f89e9e80e717600151861b7d03102f2108552aed4a96914b1b9f8aaf3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2020</creationdate><topic>Business & Economics</topic><topic>Consumer attitudes</topic><topic>consumer confidence</topic><topic>consumer survey</topic><topic>Consumption</topic><topic>Durable goods</topic><topic>Economic analysis</topic><topic>Economic theory</topic><topic>Economics</topic><topic>Expenditures</topic><topic>Forecasting</topic><topic>Household expenditure</topic><topic>Households</topic><topic>model confidence set</topic><topic>Social Sciences</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Gausden, Robert</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hasan, Mohammad S.</creatorcontrib><collection>Web of Knowledge</collection><collection>Web of Science - Social Sciences Citation Index – 2020</collection><collection>Web of Science Core Collection</collection><collection>Social Sciences Citation Index</collection><collection>Web of Science Primary (SCIE, SSCI & AHCI)</collection><collection>ECONIS</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences (IBSS)</collection><collection>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences</collection><collection>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences</collection><jtitle>Applied economics</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Gausden, Robert</au><au>Hasan, Mohammad S.</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Comparative performances of measures of consumer and economic sentiment in forecasting consumption: a multi-country analysis</atitle><jtitle>Applied economics</jtitle><stitle>APPL ECON</stitle><date>2020-02-25</date><risdate>2020</risdate><volume>52</volume><issue>10</issue><spage>1088</spage><epage>1104</epage><pages>1088-1104</pages><issn>0003-6846</issn><eissn>1466-4283</eissn><abstract>This paper seeks to compare the capabilities of assorted measures of consumer and economic sentiment in predicting the growth of household expenditure. An analysis of quarterly data on five European countries shows that for none of these can the model which incorporates the EU's headline consumer confidence indicator be deemed to be significantly inferior to any of its seven rivals. However, the rankings of the sentiment variables are seen to be influenced by: the proportion of total spending by households that is devoted to durable goods; and the nature of the behaviour of consumption over the forecast interval.</abstract><cop>ABINGDON</cop><pub>Routledge</pub><doi>10.1080/00036846.2019.1659489</doi><tpages>17</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2013-9504</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
fulltext | fulltext |
identifier | ISSN: 0003-6846 |
ispartof | Applied economics, 2020-02, Vol.52 (10), p.1088-1104 |
issn | 0003-6846 1466-4283 |
language | eng |
recordid | cdi_crossref_primary_10_1080_00036846_2019_1659489 |
source | Business Source Complete; Web of Science - Social Sciences Citation Index – 2020<img src="https://exlibris-pub.s3.amazonaws.com/fromwos-v2.jpg" /> |
subjects | Business & Economics Consumer attitudes consumer confidence consumer survey Consumption Durable goods Economic analysis Economic theory Economics Expenditures Forecasting Household expenditure Households model confidence set Social Sciences |
title | Comparative performances of measures of consumer and economic sentiment in forecasting consumption: a multi-country analysis |
url | https://sfx.bib-bvb.de/sfx_tum?ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info:ofi/enc:UTF-8&ctx_tim=2024-12-05T06%3A43%3A25IST&url_ver=Z39.88-2004&url_ctx_fmt=infofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&rfr_id=info:sid/primo.exlibrisgroup.com:primo3-Article-proquest_cross&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Comparative%20performances%20of%20measures%20of%20consumer%20and%20economic%20sentiment%20in%20forecasting%20consumption:%20a%20multi-country%20analysis&rft.jtitle=Applied%20economics&rft.au=Gausden,%20Robert&rft.date=2020-02-25&rft.volume=52&rft.issue=10&rft.spage=1088&rft.epage=1104&rft.pages=1088-1104&rft.issn=0003-6846&rft.eissn=1466-4283&rft_id=info:doi/10.1080/00036846.2019.1659489&rft_dat=%3Cproquest_cross%3E2352364145%3C/proquest_cross%3E%3Curl%3E%3C/url%3E&disable_directlink=true&sfx.directlink=off&sfx.report_link=0&rft_id=info:oai/&rft_pqid=2352364145&rft_id=info:pmid/&rfr_iscdi=true |