Comparative performances of measures of consumer and economic sentiment in forecasting consumption: a multi-country analysis
This paper seeks to compare the capabilities of assorted measures of consumer and economic sentiment in predicting the growth of household expenditure. An analysis of quarterly data on five European countries shows that for none of these can the model which incorporates the EU's headline consum...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Applied economics 2020-02, Vol.52 (10), p.1088-1104 |
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| container_title | Applied economics |
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| creator | Gausden, Robert Hasan, Mohammad S. |
| description | This paper seeks to compare the capabilities of assorted measures of consumer and economic sentiment in predicting the growth of household expenditure. An analysis of quarterly data on five European countries shows that for none of these can the model which incorporates the EU's headline consumer confidence indicator be deemed to be significantly inferior to any of its seven rivals. However, the rankings of the sentiment variables are seen to be influenced by: the proportion of total spending by households that is devoted to durable goods; and the nature of the behaviour of consumption over the forecast interval. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1080/00036846.2019.1659489 |
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| source | Business Source Complete; Web of Science - Social Sciences Citation Index – 2020<img src="https://exlibris-pub.s3.amazonaws.com/fromwos-v2.jpg" /> |
| subjects | Business & Economics Consumer attitudes consumer confidence consumer survey Consumption Durable goods Economic analysis Economic theory Economics Expenditures Forecasting Household expenditure Households model confidence set Social Sciences |
| title | Comparative performances of measures of consumer and economic sentiment in forecasting consumption: a multi-country analysis |
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