Comparative performances of measures of consumer and economic sentiment in forecasting consumption: a multi-country analysis

This paper seeks to compare the capabilities of assorted measures of consumer and economic sentiment in predicting the growth of household expenditure. An analysis of quarterly data on five European countries shows that for none of these can the model which incorporates the EU's headline consum...

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Veröffentlicht in:Applied economics 2020-02, Vol.52 (10), p.1088-1104
Hauptverfasser: Gausden, Robert, Hasan, Mohammad S.
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description This paper seeks to compare the capabilities of assorted measures of consumer and economic sentiment in predicting the growth of household expenditure. An analysis of quarterly data on five European countries shows that for none of these can the model which incorporates the EU's headline consumer confidence indicator be deemed to be significantly inferior to any of its seven rivals. However, the rankings of the sentiment variables are seen to be influenced by: the proportion of total spending by households that is devoted to durable goods; and the nature of the behaviour of consumption over the forecast interval.
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subjects Business & Economics
Consumer attitudes
consumer confidence
consumer survey
Consumption
Durable goods
Economic analysis
Economic theory
Economics
Expenditures
Forecasting
Household expenditure
Households
model confidence set
Social Sciences
title Comparative performances of measures of consumer and economic sentiment in forecasting consumption: a multi-country analysis
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