Oil as the villain? How the Kazakhstani media unsuccessfully framed a pipeline leak at the giant Kashagan oil field

The Kashagan oil field in the Kazakhstani section of the Caspian Sea is among the largest hydrocarbon development projects in the world and of immense importance for the Kazakhstani economy. It is however infamous for its decade-long delays and massive cost overruns, putting into question the legitimacy of the Kazakhstani leadership's economic development model which is based on the exploitation of the country's hydrocarbon wealth. Recognising the importance of political media framing strategies in authoritarian contexts, this article applies topic modelling and traditional qualitative framing analysis to understand Kazakhstani media narratives around the 2013 pipeline leak at the Kashagan which ultimately delayed commercial production until 2016. Drawing on the analysis of 13,335 Russian-language Kazakhstani media and political texts, I identify two distinct framing strategies: Firstly, the official media used three consecutive framings – (1) silence, (2) blaming the Kashagan oil, and (3) emphasising the positive impact of the regime's extractivist development model in partnership with International Oil Companies (IOCs). Secondly, independent media outlets pointed towards the political-economic entanglement of members of the domestic elite and IOCs in the pipeline leak. Despite its immense scale, the Kashagan oil field has been overlooked in the social science energy literature. By tracing how specific material qualities of the Kashagan oil have been exploited as a tool in the political leadership's discourse, this study adds to scholarship on the political relevance of energy materiality, ultimately stating that while oil has inherent characteristics that influence discursive political strategies, these qualities do not determine political outcomes.