Identifying the most promising agronomic adaptation strategies for the tomato growing systems in Southern Italy via simulation modeling

•A new tomato simulation model is calibrated/evaluated with field experimental data.•Alternative farmer adaptation strategies are tested in future climatic scenarios.•Simulations with no adaptation reveal negative impact on tomato yield and quality.•Moderate deficit irrigation strategies could allow sustaining tomato productions.•Agronomic indications are provided to counteract the effect of climate change. The main cultivation area of the Italian processing tomato is the Southern Capitanata plain. Here, the hardest agronomic challenge is the optimization of the irrigation water use, which is often inefficiently performed by farmers, who tend to over-irrigate. This could become unsustainable in the next years, given the negative impacts of climatic changes on groundwater availability and heat stress intensification. The aim of the study was to identify the most promising agronomic strategies to optimize tomato yield and water use in Capitanata, through a modeling study relying on an extensive dataset for model calibration and evaluation (22 data sets in 2005–2018). The TOMGRO simulation model was adapted to open-field growing conditions and was coupled with a soil model to reproduce the impact of water stress on yield and fruit quality. The new model, TomGro_field, was applied on the tomato cultivation area in Capitanata at 5 × 5 km spatial resolution using an ensemble of future climatic scenarios, resulting from the combination of four General Circulation Models, two extreme Representative Concentration Pathways and five 10-years time frames (2030–2070). Our results showed an overall negative impact of climate change on tomato yields (average decrease = 5–10%), which could be reversed by i) the implementation of deficit irrigation strategies based on the restitution of 60–70% of the crop evapotranspiration, ii) the adoption of varieties with longer cycle and iii) the anticipation of 1–2 weeks in transplanting dates. The corresponding irrigation amounts applied are around 360 mm, thus reinforcing that a rational water management could be realized. Our study provides agronomic indications to tomato growers and lays the basis for a bio-economic analysis to support policy makers in charge of promoting the sustainability of the tomato growing systems.