The Habitat Alteration of Corrigiola Litoralis L. (Strapwort) on the Elbe River Driven by Climate Change

This study aims to determine the possible future development of areas suitable for Corrigiola litoralis L. (strapwort) at six research sites on the part of the Elbe River near the border with Germany under considered climate change. We have combined hydrological and hydraulic approaches with outputs from climate models representing future climate patterns to meet these objectives. The hydrological models used in this study were BILAN, GR4J and TUW, while the hydraulic calculations were performed using HEC‐RAS. Climate data were derived from 216 climate models and grouped according to the projected change in mean temperature. Areas suitable for strapwort were identified based on conditions that reflect the ecological requirements of the species. The results show that increasing average temperatures and subsequent water level fluctuations will increase the number of seasons suitable for strapwort and its area of occurrence. These areas will emerge above water level for a longer period, extending the growing season of strapwort and increasing its reproductive capacity. At the same time, winter flooding of the sites will remain, which is likely to suppress perennial species that would competitively exclude strapwort. Regarding hydrological models, GR4J and TUW were consistent in their results. In contrast, due to the different structure, the BILAN model showed a different response to rainfall inputs, and the results were inconsistent with those of the above models. This finding highlights the need to select an appropriate hydrological model. In contrast, the sensitivity of the results to climate model variability was found to be relatively low.