Effect of environmental drivers on the spatiotemporal distribution of mackerel at age in the Nordic Seas during 2010-20

A joint spatio–temporal distribution model of mackerel (ages 3–10) was developed to investigate the age-based responses of mackerel to three environmental drivers: sea surface temperature (SST), mixed layer depth, and chlorophyll-a concentration during the summer months 2010–20 in the Nordic Seas. The study showed that SST was the most important variable amongst the ones tested and had the strongest impact on the distribution of the younger age classes (3–5), which had a narrower range of favourable SST and a stronger aversion to cold temperatures than older individuals. Consequently, the impact of SST differed regionally; in the polar front regions, SST explained up to 61% of the variability in the observed density of young individuals, where Arctic water masses likely acted as a barrier to these young individuals. That said, part of it could be confounded with the limited migration capability of young mackerels, which could not reach the furthest frontal regions. In warmer southern waters, the same environmental variables had less explanatory power for mackerel of all ages. Individuals in the south were likely not constrained by temperature and perhaps more influenced by other variables, such as food availability or ocean current (throughout their migration path), for which appropriate data are lacking. Moreover, the model showed that older mackerel were distributed more to the north and west, and their migration pattern changed when the 2013 year-class no longer migrated to the west compared to previous year-classes. Additionally, all-year classes started migrating more eastward from summer 2018.