Insights into the quantification and reporting of model-related uncertainty across different disciplines

Quantifying uncertainty associated with our models is the only way we can ex- press how much we know about any phenomenon. Incomplete consideration of model-based uncertainties can lead to overstated conclusions with real-world im- pacts in diverse spheres, including conservation, epidemiology, clim...

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Hauptverfasser: Simmonds, Emily Grace, Dunn-Sigouin, Etienne, Adjei, Kwaku Peprah, Andersen, Christoffer Wold, Aspheim, Janne Cathrin Hetle, Battistin, Claudia, Bulso, Nicola, Christensen, Hannah M, Cretois, Benjamin, Cubero, Ryan John Abat, Davidovich, Ivan Andres, Dickel, Lisa, Dunn, Benjamin Adric, Dyrstad, Karin, Einum, Sigurd, Giglio, Donata, Gjerløw, Haakon, Godefroidt, Amélie, González-Gil, Ricardo, Gonzalo Cogno, Soledad, Große, Fabian, Halloran, Paul, Jensen, Mari Fjalstad, Kennedy, John James, Langsæther, Peter Egge, Laverick, Jack H, Lederberger, Debora, Li, Camille, Mandeville, Elizabeth G, Mandeville, Caitlin, Moe, Espen, Schröder, Tobias Navarro, Nunan, David, Sicacha-Parada, Jorge, Simpson, Melanie Rae, Skarstein, Emma Sofie, Spensberger, Clemens, Stevens, Richard, Subramanian, Aneesh C, Svendsen, Lea, Theisen, Ole Magnus, Watret, Connor, O'Hara, Robert B
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creator Simmonds, Emily Grace
Dunn-Sigouin, Etienne
Adjei, Kwaku Peprah
Andersen, Christoffer Wold
Aspheim, Janne Cathrin Hetle
Battistin, Claudia
Bulso, Nicola
Christensen, Hannah M
Cretois, Benjamin
Cubero, Ryan John Abat
Davidovich, Ivan Andres
Dickel, Lisa
Dunn, Benjamin Adric
Dyrstad, Karin
Einum, Sigurd
Giglio, Donata
Gjerløw, Haakon
Godefroidt, Amélie
González-Gil, Ricardo
Gonzalo Cogno, Soledad
Große, Fabian
Halloran, Paul
Jensen, Mari Fjalstad
Kennedy, John James
Langsæther, Peter Egge
Laverick, Jack H
Lederberger, Debora
Li, Camille
Mandeville, Elizabeth G
Mandeville, Caitlin
Moe, Espen
Schröder, Tobias Navarro
Nunan, David
Sicacha-Parada, Jorge
Simpson, Melanie Rae
Skarstein, Emma Sofie
Spensberger, Clemens
Stevens, Richard
Subramanian, Aneesh C
Svendsen, Lea
Theisen, Ole Magnus
Watret, Connor
O'Hara, Robert B
description Quantifying uncertainty associated with our models is the only way we can ex- press how much we know about any phenomenon. Incomplete consideration of model-based uncertainties can lead to overstated conclusions with real-world im- pacts in diverse spheres, including conservation, epidemiology, climate science, and policy. Despite these potentially damaging consequences, we still know little about how different fields quantify and report uncertainty. We introduce the ‘‘sources of uncertainty’’ framework, using it to conduct a systematic audit of model-related uncertainty quantification from seven scientific fields, spanning the biological, physical, and political sciences. Our interdisciplinary audit shows no field fully considers all possible sources of uncertainty, but each has its own best practices alongside shared outstanding challenges. We make ten easy-to- implement recommendations to improve the consistency, completeness, and clarity of reporting on model-related uncertainty. These recommendations serve as a guide to best practices across scientific fields and expand our toolbox for high-quality research.
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title Insights into the quantification and reporting of model-related uncertainty across different disciplines
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