Integrated Economic and Physical Information for Environmental Footprint Modelling

Whether inspired by motives of fair attribution of environmental responsibilities or the search for the most effective scheme for market driven emission abatements, reliable analyses of the environmental consequences of consumption is sought after by policymakers, researchers and the environmentally...

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description Whether inspired by motives of fair attribution of environmental responsibilities or the search for the most effective scheme for market driven emission abatements, reliable analyses of the environmental consequences of consumption is sought after by policymakers, researchers and the environmentally concerned citizen alike. A solid framework for such analyses exists in the form of input-output analysis, though such analyses have not been as widespread as their potential usefulness and pertinence might suggest. Following the ascent of environmental issues as a central item on the agenda even in top-level international policy negotiations, and facilitated by advances in modeling and computational capabilities, recent years have seen an increased focus on the development and application of comprehensive global input-output models for environmental assessments. The work presented here is an attempt to capitalize on the present suite of available global input-output databases to assess environmental pressures embodied in consumed goods and services, commonly referred to as environmental footprints of consumption, and discuss the reliability of the databases through a comparative assessment. By extending the economic input-output models with environmental data, environmental flows, either directly or virtually embodied in products, can be tracked through the economy as it is modeled in the input-output system. In my PhD work, presented herein in the form of four resulting scientific papers, I have contributed to extending and adapting a global model with supplementary data to allow improved analyses of environmental pressures embodied in traded and consumed products, and to assessing a group of global models. For a large-scale assessment of global flows of embodied land and water use, we combined data from the comprehensive FAO database on worldwide production and trade of agricultural and forestry products with a global multiregional inputoutput model. The more detailed representation of these products types, which are the ones that mostly contribute toward land and water use embodied in consumption, allowed increased accuracy in the modeling of these footprint types. Using this improved model to assess carbon, land and water footprints for each of the EU member states, we found EU average footprints per capita of 13.3 tons of CO2 equivalents, 2.53 hectares of world-average bioproductive land, and 179 m3 of consumed surface and ground freshwater for 2004. A fur
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A solid framework for such analyses exists in the form of input-output analysis, though such analyses have not been as widespread as their potential usefulness and pertinence might suggest. Following the ascent of environmental issues as a central item on the agenda even in top-level international policy negotiations, and facilitated by advances in modeling and computational capabilities, recent years have seen an increased focus on the development and application of comprehensive global input-output models for environmental assessments. The work presented here is an attempt to capitalize on the present suite of available global input-output databases to assess environmental pressures embodied in consumed goods and services, commonly referred to as environmental footprints of consumption, and discuss the reliability of the databases through a comparative assessment. By extending the economic input-output models with environmental data, environmental flows, either directly or virtually embodied in products, can be tracked through the economy as it is modeled in the input-output system. In my PhD work, presented herein in the form of four resulting scientific papers, I have contributed to extending and adapting a global model with supplementary data to allow improved analyses of environmental pressures embodied in traded and consumed products, and to assessing a group of global models. For a large-scale assessment of global flows of embodied land and water use, we combined data from the comprehensive FAO database on worldwide production and trade of agricultural and forestry products with a global multiregional inputoutput model. The more detailed representation of these products types, which are the ones that mostly contribute toward land and water use embodied in consumption, allowed increased accuracy in the modeling of these footprint types. Using this improved model to assess carbon, land and water footprints for each of the EU member states, we found EU average footprints per capita of 13.3 tons of CO2 equivalents, 2.53 hectares of world-average bioproductive land, and 179 m3 of consumed surface and ground freshwater for 2004. A further contribution analysis revealed the EU to be a net importer of all these environmental pressures embodied in traded products; however, there was also large such flows internally among EU countries, with some countries having large net exports or imports with fellow EU countries. In a further investigation of the potential for using global multiregional inputoutput models to assess environmental footprints even at the micro level, we extended one such model with data from the Norwegian consumer expenditure survey to allow a detailed assessment of the carbon footprint of Norwegian households from 1999 to 2012. We found a carbon footprint of 22.3 tons of CO2 equivalents for the average Norwegian household in 2012, which was an increase of 26% since 1999. We put particular emphasis on documenting in a transparent manner the approach taken to harmonize these two datasets, so as to facilitate similar analyses for other countries, even by non-specialists, and to encourage further improvements to this method towards a common standard. The emphasis on a didactic approach was based on the rationale that an understanding of the extent and nature of environmental footprints of consumed products is vital in order to design efficient consumer-oriented emissions reductions strategies, and the recognition that detailed consumer expenditure surveys are already available in most countries, following a standard statistical framework. In addition to these model extensions and associated footprint assessments, we have worked on assessing the reliability of the input-output databases themselves. Firstly, from the availability of several global multiregional input-output models arose the question as to whether they all coherently model the global economic structure. To give a first, tentative answer to this, we performed a comparative analysis of some macro indicators based on value added embodied in consumption, by first harmonizing three of the most important multiregional input-output databases currently available to a common framework. The comparison of gross value added embodied in the consumption of countries or of products showed significant differences even at the aggregate level. However, this observed disagreement was coherent to that found in the territorial accounts, suggesting that the most important contributor to model disagreement is in the value added accounts themselves. Furthermore, we addressed the potential importance of the well-known limitation of limited product detail in input-output systems. We evaluated the accuracy of carbon footprint multipliers of individual input-output products by analyzing the sensitivity of such multipliers to the level of product detail in the model. This effect was evaluated by assessing, for four global models individually, how carbon multipliers react to aggregation of the input-output system. Throughout, the analysis showed carbon multipliers to be highly sensitive to reduced model detail, even if models are able to give reasonable overall footprint results. Environmentally extended multiregional input-output analysis is a powerful tool that can provide important contributions to international as well as regional policy debates on a range of environmental challenges. Through recent collaborative research efforts these databases are now so detailed and extensive that comprehensive assessments can be made of international supply chains. 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A solid framework for such analyses exists in the form of input-output analysis, though such analyses have not been as widespread as their potential usefulness and pertinence might suggest. Following the ascent of environmental issues as a central item on the agenda even in top-level international policy negotiations, and facilitated by advances in modeling and computational capabilities, recent years have seen an increased focus on the development and application of comprehensive global input-output models for environmental assessments. The work presented here is an attempt to capitalize on the present suite of available global input-output databases to assess environmental pressures embodied in consumed goods and services, commonly referred to as environmental footprints of consumption, and discuss the reliability of the databases through a comparative assessment. By extending the economic input-output models with environmental data, environmental flows, either directly or virtually embodied in products, can be tracked through the economy as it is modeled in the input-output system. In my PhD work, presented herein in the form of four resulting scientific papers, I have contributed to extending and adapting a global model with supplementary data to allow improved analyses of environmental pressures embodied in traded and consumed products, and to assessing a group of global models. For a large-scale assessment of global flows of embodied land and water use, we combined data from the comprehensive FAO database on worldwide production and trade of agricultural and forestry products with a global multiregional inputoutput model. The more detailed representation of these products types, which are the ones that mostly contribute toward land and water use embodied in consumption, allowed increased accuracy in the modeling of these footprint types. Using this improved model to assess carbon, land and water footprints for each of the EU member states, we found EU average footprints per capita of 13.3 tons of CO2 equivalents, 2.53 hectares of world-average bioproductive land, and 179 m3 of consumed surface and ground freshwater for 2004. A further contribution analysis revealed the EU to be a net importer of all these environmental pressures embodied in traded products; however, there was also large such flows internally among EU countries, with some countries having large net exports or imports with fellow EU countries. In a further investigation of the potential for using global multiregional inputoutput models to assess environmental footprints even at the micro level, we extended one such model with data from the Norwegian consumer expenditure survey to allow a detailed assessment of the carbon footprint of Norwegian households from 1999 to 2012. We found a carbon footprint of 22.3 tons of CO2 equivalents for the average Norwegian household in 2012, which was an increase of 26% since 1999. We put particular emphasis on documenting in a transparent manner the approach taken to harmonize these two datasets, so as to facilitate similar analyses for other countries, even by non-specialists, and to encourage further improvements to this method towards a common standard. The emphasis on a didactic approach was based on the rationale that an understanding of the extent and nature of environmental footprints of consumed products is vital in order to design efficient consumer-oriented emissions reductions strategies, and the recognition that detailed consumer expenditure surveys are already available in most countries, following a standard statistical framework. In addition to these model extensions and associated footprint assessments, we have worked on assessing the reliability of the input-output databases themselves. Firstly, from the availability of several global multiregional input-output models arose the question as to whether they all coherently model the global economic structure. To give a first, tentative answer to this, we performed a comparative analysis of some macro indicators based on value added embodied in consumption, by first harmonizing three of the most important multiregional input-output databases currently available to a common framework. The comparison of gross value added embodied in the consumption of countries or of products showed significant differences even at the aggregate level. However, this observed disagreement was coherent to that found in the territorial accounts, suggesting that the most important contributor to model disagreement is in the value added accounts themselves. Furthermore, we addressed the potential importance of the well-known limitation of limited product detail in input-output systems. We evaluated the accuracy of carbon footprint multipliers of individual input-output products by analyzing the sensitivity of such multipliers to the level of product detail in the model. This effect was evaluated by assessing, for four global models individually, how carbon multipliers react to aggregation of the input-output system. Throughout, the analysis showed carbon multipliers to be highly sensitive to reduced model detail, even if models are able to give reasonable overall footprint results. Environmentally extended multiregional input-output analysis is a powerful tool that can provide important contributions to international as well as regional policy debates on a range of environmental challenges. Through recent collaborative research efforts these databases are now so detailed and extensive that comprehensive assessments can be made of international supply chains. 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A solid framework for such analyses exists in the form of input-output analysis, though such analyses have not been as widespread as their potential usefulness and pertinence might suggest. Following the ascent of environmental issues as a central item on the agenda even in top-level international policy negotiations, and facilitated by advances in modeling and computational capabilities, recent years have seen an increased focus on the development and application of comprehensive global input-output models for environmental assessments. The work presented here is an attempt to capitalize on the present suite of available global input-output databases to assess environmental pressures embodied in consumed goods and services, commonly referred to as environmental footprints of consumption, and discuss the reliability of the databases through a comparative assessment. By extending the economic input-output models with environmental data, environmental flows, either directly or virtually embodied in products, can be tracked through the economy as it is modeled in the input-output system. In my PhD work, presented herein in the form of four resulting scientific papers, I have contributed to extending and adapting a global model with supplementary data to allow improved analyses of environmental pressures embodied in traded and consumed products, and to assessing a group of global models. For a large-scale assessment of global flows of embodied land and water use, we combined data from the comprehensive FAO database on worldwide production and trade of agricultural and forestry products with a global multiregional inputoutput model. The more detailed representation of these products types, which are the ones that mostly contribute toward land and water use embodied in consumption, allowed increased accuracy in the modeling of these footprint types. Using this improved model to assess carbon, land and water footprints for each of the EU member states, we found EU average footprints per capita of 13.3 tons of CO2 equivalents, 2.53 hectares of world-average bioproductive land, and 179 m3 of consumed surface and ground freshwater for 2004. A further contribution analysis revealed the EU to be a net importer of all these environmental pressures embodied in traded products; however, there was also large such flows internally among EU countries, with some countries having large net exports or imports with fellow EU countries. In a further investigation of the potential for using global multiregional inputoutput models to assess environmental footprints even at the micro level, we extended one such model with data from the Norwegian consumer expenditure survey to allow a detailed assessment of the carbon footprint of Norwegian households from 1999 to 2012. We found a carbon footprint of 22.3 tons of CO2 equivalents for the average Norwegian household in 2012, which was an increase of 26% since 1999. We put particular emphasis on documenting in a transparent manner the approach taken to harmonize these two datasets, so as to facilitate similar analyses for other countries, even by non-specialists, and to encourage further improvements to this method towards a common standard. The emphasis on a didactic approach was based on the rationale that an understanding of the extent and nature of environmental footprints of consumed products is vital in order to design efficient consumer-oriented emissions reductions strategies, and the recognition that detailed consumer expenditure surveys are already available in most countries, following a standard statistical framework. In addition to these model extensions and associated footprint assessments, we have worked on assessing the reliability of the input-output databases themselves. Firstly, from the availability of several global multiregional input-output models arose the question as to whether they all coherently model the global economic structure. To give a first, tentative answer to this, we performed a comparative analysis of some macro indicators based on value added embodied in consumption, by first harmonizing three of the most important multiregional input-output databases currently available to a common framework. The comparison of gross value added embodied in the consumption of countries or of products showed significant differences even at the aggregate level. However, this observed disagreement was coherent to that found in the territorial accounts, suggesting that the most important contributor to model disagreement is in the value added accounts themselves. Furthermore, we addressed the potential importance of the well-known limitation of limited product detail in input-output systems. We evaluated the accuracy of carbon footprint multipliers of individual input-output products by analyzing the sensitivity of such multipliers to the level of product detail in the model. This effect was evaluated by assessing, for four global models individually, how carbon multipliers react to aggregation of the input-output system. Throughout, the analysis showed carbon multipliers to be highly sensitive to reduced model detail, even if models are able to give reasonable overall footprint results. Environmentally extended multiregional input-output analysis is a powerful tool that can provide important contributions to international as well as regional policy debates on a range of environmental challenges. Through recent collaborative research efforts these databases are now so detailed and extensive that comprehensive assessments can be made of international supply chains. Though input-output tables may never be perfect, the input-output community has some way to go still in terms of improving the sectoral detail and data foundation underlying the models.</abstract><pub>NTNU</pub><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record>
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