Čína má ambície stať sa ďalším centrom svetovej ekonomiky

At present time, there are three centers of the world economy: USA, European Union (EU), and Japan. China would like to become the fourth centre in the middle of this century. China is a country with the largest population in the world, third largest area and second largest economy (measured with PPP US dollar), producing 1/8 of the world GDP. The authors examine past development and present status of the Chinese economy, as well as the perspectives of its further development. In 2002, the Chinese per capita GDP has amounted to 4 400 US dollar (PPP), which is approximately 12 per cent of U. S. level and 16 per cent of the Japanese level. On the other hand, Chinese growth rate of real GDP (8 per cent in 2002) is one of the largest in the world. Economic growth in China has been supported i. e. by high foreign capital inflow attracted by reduced taxes especially in the „exclusive economic zones“, ex-tremely low nominal wages, and undervalued exchange rate of the Chinese currency. In the second part of the article the authors present i. e. Chinese official forecast of crucial macroeconomic indicators, territorial structure of foreign trade, and selected structural changes (with their extrapolations up to 2002). Share of urban population has grown from 23.7 per cent in 1985 to 37.7 per cent in 2001 and may grow further up to about 54 per cent in 2020. At the same time the share of primary sectors decreases in favour of secondary and tertiary sectors, the share of primary goods in exports decreases in favour of manufactured goods and the share of food in total consumption of house-holds declines as well, etc. China has declared a goal to catch up the USA in per capita GDP up to 2050. The authors have shown possible growth of the relation of Chinese per capita GDP to that of U. S. (provided that the present rates would continue) and come to the conclusion that this ambitious goal is feasible.