Статистичка анализа средњих, великих и малих вода реке Топлице

The river Toplica springs on the east slopes of Kopaonik. It is the biggest left tributary of the Južna Morava, in which it empties at the town of Korvingrad. It is 130 km long and the surface of its river-basin amounts to 2180 km². This study estimates the probability of average, minimum and maximum discharge occurrence on the hydrological profile Pepeljevac on the Toplica River in the period 1951-2014. Pearson type III distribution was used for quantifying average, minimum and maximum annual discharge. Results of the study point out to significant fluctuations in the river Toplica discharge upstream the hydrological profile Pepeljevac, which is the base for further study and improvement water management planning in the basin. On the basis of probability of average annual discharges occurrence, a classification of years by water richness was done. Mann-Kendal test examined the trend of Toplica discharge, while Pettit, SNTH, Buishand and von Neumann tests analyzed homogeneity of the data on the observed profile. Analysis of average annual discharges shows that years moderately rich in water are the most numerous (29) with somewhat higher participation of rich in water (16) than dry (14) years. Coefficients of variation of maximum and minimum annual discharges for the Toplica river point out to significant fluctuations upstream the hydrological profile Pepeljevac. These results are the base for further study and improvement of water management planning in the basin.