ZASTOSOWANIE MODELI TRENDU DO PROJEKCJI OPŁACALNOŚCI PRODUKCJI MLEKA W PERSPEKTYWIE ŚREDNIOTERMINOWEJ

ZASTOSOWANIE MODELI TRENDU DO PROJEKCJI OPŁACALNOŚCI PRODUKCJI MLEKA W PERSPEKTYWIE ŚREDNIOTERMINOWEJ

The aim of the study is to determine the change in the profitability of milk production in Poland until 2020 year in regional breakdown. To prepare the projections classical models of development trend have been used. Due to the volatility of milk prices over time (+/-8.7%) different variants of the...

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Veröffentlicht in:Metody ilosciowe w badaniach ekonomicznych 2016, Vol.XVII (1), p.84-97
Hauptverfasser: Skarżyńska, Aldona, Jabłoński, Konrad
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Sprache:pol
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Agriculture
Economy
Methodology and research technology
Policy, planning, forecast and speculation
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container_title Metody ilosciowe w badaniach ekonomicznych
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creator Skarżyńska, Aldona
Jabłoński, Konrad
description The aim of the study is to determine the change in the profitability of milk production in Poland until 2020 year in regional breakdown. To prepare the projections classical models of development trend have been used. Due to the volatility of milk prices over time (+/-8.7%) different variants of the projection were developed. The results show that in 2020 compared to 2015 the growth of revenues will be stronger than the growth of costs and as a result the profitability of milk production will be higher (from 11.2 to 17.2 percentage points). However, estimation also shows that profitability of milk production in 2020 will be lower than in 2014 (from 1.6 to 6.8 pp). Only in the favorable projection variant (increase of milk price by 8.7%), profitability will be higher than in 2014.
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subjects Agriculture
Economy
Methodology and research technology
Policy, planning, forecast and speculation
title ZASTOSOWANIE MODELI TRENDU DO PROJEKCJI OPŁACALNOŚCI PRODUKCJI MLEKA W PERSPEKTYWIE ŚREDNIOTERMINOWEJ
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