Dlhodobé prognózy makroekonomického vývoja Slovenskej republiky

The paper summarises long-term prognoses developed in 2000 in the Institute of Slovak and World Economics of the Slovak Academy of Sciences for the Government Office of the Slovak Republic. These prognoses were discussed in the Economic Council of the Slovak Government and then utilised also for the Ministry for Labour, Social Affairs and Family of the Slovak Republic to prepare employment prognosis up to the year 2006. Prognoses start from the presumption that after the completion of the period of mac-roeconomic stabilization of the Slovak economy in the years 1999–2000 (e.g. the reduc-tion of the balance of payments deficit as well as the reduction of the public finance deficit, yet at the expense of real wages reduction and increased unemployment) macro-economic policy of the government and central bank will cross over towards the support of the economic growth acceleration. One anticipates above all the increased inflow of foreign capital, enterprising sphere restructuring and legislation measures aimed mainly at the preparation of the Slovak Republic’s entry into the European Union. At quantify-ing the scenario one takes into the account also the expected development of the world (above all European) economy as well as expected costs and benefits of the Slovak entry into the European Union. GDP growth rate after the deceleration from 4.1 % in the year 1998 down to 1.9–2.2 % during the years 1999–2000, could accelerate already in the year 2001 up to 2.7–3.2 %, which is expected in the prognoses of foreign institutions too. Towards the year 2005 GDP growth rate should further increase annually up to 4.2–5.2 %. In the following parts of the paper authors present consequential prognoses of the foreign trade, labour productivity, average wages, internal and external equilibrium as well as employment and unemployment rate.