Optimal selection of the starting lineup for a football team
The success of a football team depends on various individual skills and performances of the selected players as well as how cohesively they perform. We propose a two-stage process for selecting optimal playing eleven of a football team from its pool of available players. In the first stage a LASSO-i...
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| creator | Deb, Soudeep Das, Shubhabrata |
| description | The success of a football team depends on various individual skills and
performances of the selected players as well as how cohesively they perform. We
propose a two-stage process for selecting optimal playing eleven of a football
team from its pool of available players. In the first stage a LASSO-induced
modified multinomial logistic regression model is derived to analyse the
probabilities of the three possible outcomes. The model considers strengths of
the players in the team as well as those of the opponent, home advantage, and
also the effects of individual players and player combinations beyond the
recorded performances of these players. In the second stage, a GRASP-type
meta-heuristic is implemented for the team selection which maximises its
probability of winning. The work is illustrated with English Premier League
data from 2008/09 to 2015/16. The application demonstrates that the model in
the first stage furnishes valuable insights about the deciding factors for
different teams whereas the optimisation steps can be effectively used to
determine the best possible starting lineup under various circumstances. We
propose a measure of efficiency in team selection by the team management and
analyse the performance of the teams on this front. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.48550/arxiv.2303.12385 |
| format | Article |
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performances of the selected players as well as how cohesively they perform. We
propose a two-stage process for selecting optimal playing eleven of a football
team from its pool of available players. In the first stage a LASSO-induced
modified multinomial logistic regression model is derived to analyse the
probabilities of the three possible outcomes. The model considers strengths of
the players in the team as well as those of the opponent, home advantage, and
also the effects of individual players and player combinations beyond the
recorded performances of these players. In the second stage, a GRASP-type
meta-heuristic is implemented for the team selection which maximises its
probability of winning. The work is illustrated with English Premier League
data from 2008/09 to 2015/16. The application demonstrates that the model in
the first stage furnishes valuable insights about the deciding factors for
different teams whereas the optimisation steps can be effectively used to
determine the best possible starting lineup under various circumstances. We
propose a measure of efficiency in team selection by the team management and
analyse the performance of the teams on this front.</description><identifier>DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2303.12385</identifier><language>eng</language><subject>Statistics - Applications ; Statistics - Methodology</subject><creationdate>2023-03</creationdate><rights>http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0</rights><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><link.rule.ids>228,230,778,883</link.rule.ids><linktorsrc>$$Uhttps://arxiv.org/abs/2303.12385$$EView_record_in_Cornell_University$$FView_record_in_$$GCornell_University$$Hfree_for_read</linktorsrc><backlink>$$Uhttps://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2303.12385$$DView paper in arXiv$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Deb, Soudeep</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Das, Shubhabrata</creatorcontrib><title>Optimal selection of the starting lineup for a football team</title><description>The success of a football team depends on various individual skills and
performances of the selected players as well as how cohesively they perform. We
propose a two-stage process for selecting optimal playing eleven of a football
team from its pool of available players. In the first stage a LASSO-induced
modified multinomial logistic regression model is derived to analyse the
probabilities of the three possible outcomes. The model considers strengths of
the players in the team as well as those of the opponent, home advantage, and
also the effects of individual players and player combinations beyond the
recorded performances of these players. In the second stage, a GRASP-type
meta-heuristic is implemented for the team selection which maximises its
probability of winning. The work is illustrated with English Premier League
data from 2008/09 to 2015/16. The application demonstrates that the model in
the first stage furnishes valuable insights about the deciding factors for
different teams whereas the optimisation steps can be effectively used to
determine the best possible starting lineup under various circumstances. We
propose a measure of efficiency in team selection by the team management and
analyse the performance of the teams on this front.</description><subject>Statistics - Applications</subject><subject>Statistics - Methodology</subject><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2023</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>GOX</sourceid><recordid>eNotj71OwzAURr0woNIHYMIvkHDt25ukEguqaItUqUv36NqxwZKbRI5B9O37x_Kd7dM5QjwrKBcNEbxy-gu_pUbAUmls6FG87cccjhzl5KKzOQy9HLzM305OmVMO_ZeMoXc_o_RDknzZIRuOUWbHxyfx4DlObv7PmTisPw6rbbHbbz5X77uCq5oKXFoLVBsGbw3hAk0N6DsEYucqMNBx3XkFvORGVcoAa6vAkwZFnSGNM_Fyv73pt2O6CKdTe81obxl4BtzDQkw</recordid><startdate>20230322</startdate><enddate>20230322</enddate><creator>Deb, Soudeep</creator><creator>Das, Shubhabrata</creator><scope>EPD</scope><scope>GOX</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20230322</creationdate><title>Optimal selection of the starting lineup for a football team</title><author>Deb, Soudeep ; Das, Shubhabrata</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-a675-39cc057ba0fcb5343b703fd305aee60b0da7df10a9a8161b0a2c10f52015db523</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2023</creationdate><topic>Statistics - Applications</topic><topic>Statistics - Methodology</topic><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Deb, Soudeep</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Das, Shubhabrata</creatorcontrib><collection>arXiv Statistics</collection><collection>arXiv.org</collection></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext_linktorsrc</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Deb, Soudeep</au><au>Das, Shubhabrata</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Optimal selection of the starting lineup for a football team</atitle><date>2023-03-22</date><risdate>2023</risdate><abstract>The success of a football team depends on various individual skills and
performances of the selected players as well as how cohesively they perform. We
propose a two-stage process for selecting optimal playing eleven of a football
team from its pool of available players. In the first stage a LASSO-induced
modified multinomial logistic regression model is derived to analyse the
probabilities of the three possible outcomes. The model considers strengths of
the players in the team as well as those of the opponent, home advantage, and
also the effects of individual players and player combinations beyond the
recorded performances of these players. In the second stage, a GRASP-type
meta-heuristic is implemented for the team selection which maximises its
probability of winning. The work is illustrated with English Premier League
data from 2008/09 to 2015/16. The application demonstrates that the model in
the first stage furnishes valuable insights about the deciding factors for
different teams whereas the optimisation steps can be effectively used to
determine the best possible starting lineup under various circumstances. We
propose a measure of efficiency in team selection by the team management and
analyse the performance of the teams on this front.</abstract><doi>10.48550/arxiv.2303.12385</doi><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Statistics - Applications Statistics - Methodology |
| title | Optimal selection of the starting lineup for a football team |
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