Extreme rainfall propagation within Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation modulated by Pacific sea surface temperature
Intraseasonal variations of the South Asian Summer Monsoon (SASM) contain alternating extreme rainfall (active) and low rainfall (break) phases impacting agriculture and economies. Their timing and spatial location are dominated by the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO), a quasi-periodi...
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| creator | Strnad, Felix M Schloer, Jakob Geen, Ruth Boers, Niklas Goswami, Bedartha |
| description | Intraseasonal variations of the South Asian Summer Monsoon (SASM) contain alternating extreme rainfall (active) and low rainfall (break) phases impacting agriculture and economies. Their timing and spatial location are dominated by the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO), a quasi-periodic movement of convective precipitation from the equatorial Indian Ocean to the Western Pacific. However, observed deviations from the BSISO's canonical north-eastward propagation are poorly understood. Utilizing climate networks to characterize how active phases propagate within the SASM domain and using clustering analysis, we reveal three distinct modes of BSISO propagation: north-eastward, eastward-blocked, and stationary. We further show that Pacific sea surface temperatures modulate the modes - with El Niño- (La Niña-) like conditions favoring the stationary (eastward-blocked) - by changing local zonal and meridional overturning circulations and the BSISO Kelvin wave component. Using these insights, we demonstrate the potential for early warning signals of extreme rainfall until four weeks in advance. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.48550/arxiv.2302.00425 |
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Their timing and spatial location are dominated by the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO), a quasi-periodic movement of convective precipitation from the equatorial Indian Ocean to the Western Pacific. However, observed deviations from the BSISO's canonical north-eastward propagation are poorly understood. Utilizing climate networks to characterize how active phases propagate within the SASM domain and using clustering analysis, we reveal three distinct modes of BSISO propagation: north-eastward, eastward-blocked, and stationary. We further show that Pacific sea surface temperatures modulate the modes - with El Niño- (La Niña-) like conditions favoring the stationary (eastward-blocked) - by changing local zonal and meridional overturning circulations and the BSISO Kelvin wave component. 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Their timing and spatial location are dominated by the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO), a quasi-periodic movement of convective precipitation from the equatorial Indian Ocean to the Western Pacific. However, observed deviations from the BSISO's canonical north-eastward propagation are poorly understood. Utilizing climate networks to characterize how active phases propagate within the SASM domain and using clustering analysis, we reveal three distinct modes of BSISO propagation: north-eastward, eastward-blocked, and stationary. We further show that Pacific sea surface temperatures modulate the modes - with El Niño- (La Niña-) like conditions favoring the stationary (eastward-blocked) - by changing local zonal and meridional overturning circulations and the BSISO Kelvin wave component. 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| subjects | Cluster analysis Clustering El Nino Kelvin waves La Nina Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics Propagation modes Rainfall Sea surface temperature Summer |
| title | Extreme rainfall propagation within Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation modulated by Pacific sea surface temperature |
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