Big Data Information and Nowcasting: Consumption and Investment from Bank Transactions in Turkey
We use the aggregate information from individual-to-firm and firm-to-firm in Garanti BBVA Bank transactions to mimic domestic private demand. Particularly, we replicate the quarterly national accounts aggregate consumption and investment (gross fixed capital formation) and its bigger components (Mac...
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| creator | Barlas, Ali B Mert, Seda Guler Isa, Berk Orkun Ortiz, Alvaro Rodrigo, Tomasa Soybilgen, Baris Yazgan, Ege |
| description | We use the aggregate information from individual-to-firm and firm-to-firm in
Garanti BBVA Bank transactions to mimic domestic private demand. Particularly,
we replicate the quarterly national accounts aggregate consumption and
investment (gross fixed capital formation) and its bigger components (Machinery
and Equipment and Construction) in real time for the case of Turkey. In order
to validate the usefulness of the information derived from these indicators we
test the nowcasting ability of both indicators to nowcast the Turkish GDP using
different nowcasting models. The results are successful and confirm the
usefulness of Consumption and Investment Banking transactions for nowcasting
purposes. The value of the Big data information is more relevant at the
beginning of the nowcasting process, when the traditional hard data information
is scarce. This makes this information specially relevant for those countries
where statistical release lags are longer like the Emerging Markets. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.48550/arxiv.2107.03299 |
| format | Article |
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Garanti BBVA Bank transactions to mimic domestic private demand. Particularly,
we replicate the quarterly national accounts aggregate consumption and
investment (gross fixed capital formation) and its bigger components (Machinery
and Equipment and Construction) in real time for the case of Turkey. In order
to validate the usefulness of the information derived from these indicators we
test the nowcasting ability of both indicators to nowcast the Turkish GDP using
different nowcasting models. The results are successful and confirm the
usefulness of Consumption and Investment Banking transactions for nowcasting
purposes. The value of the Big data information is more relevant at the
beginning of the nowcasting process, when the traditional hard data information
is scarce. This makes this information specially relevant for those countries
where statistical release lags are longer like the Emerging Markets.</description><identifier>DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2107.03299</identifier><language>eng</language><subject>Computer Science - Learning ; Quantitative Finance - Statistical Finance</subject><creationdate>2021-07</creationdate><rights>http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0</rights><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><link.rule.ids>228,230,780,885</link.rule.ids><linktorsrc>$$Uhttps://arxiv.org/abs/2107.03299$$EView_record_in_Cornell_University$$FView_record_in_$$GCornell_University$$Hfree_for_read</linktorsrc><backlink>$$Uhttps://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2107.03299$$DView paper in arXiv$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Barlas, Ali B</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Mert, Seda Guler</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Isa, Berk Orkun</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ortiz, Alvaro</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Rodrigo, Tomasa</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Soybilgen, Baris</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Yazgan, Ege</creatorcontrib><title>Big Data Information and Nowcasting: Consumption and Investment from Bank Transactions in Turkey</title><description>We use the aggregate information from individual-to-firm and firm-to-firm in
Garanti BBVA Bank transactions to mimic domestic private demand. Particularly,
we replicate the quarterly national accounts aggregate consumption and
investment (gross fixed capital formation) and its bigger components (Machinery
and Equipment and Construction) in real time for the case of Turkey. In order
to validate the usefulness of the information derived from these indicators we
test the nowcasting ability of both indicators to nowcast the Turkish GDP using
different nowcasting models. The results are successful and confirm the
usefulness of Consumption and Investment Banking transactions for nowcasting
purposes. The value of the Big data information is more relevant at the
beginning of the nowcasting process, when the traditional hard data information
is scarce. This makes this information specially relevant for those countries
where statistical release lags are longer like the Emerging Markets.</description><subject>Computer Science - Learning</subject><subject>Quantitative Finance - Statistical Finance</subject><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2021</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>GOX</sourceid><recordid>eNo9z71OwzAUBWAvDKjwAEzcF0hwYie22Wj4i1TBkj1cHLuyiu3KTgt9e9RSMZ3hHB3pI-SmoiWXTUPvMP24fVlXVJSU1Updko-lW8Mjzgh9sDF5nF0MgGGCt_itMc8urO-hiyHv_Pa_68Pe5NmbMINN0cMSwwaGhCGjPo4yuADDLm3M4YpcWPzK5vqcCzI8Pw3da7F6f-m7h1WBrVAFk8Jy2_DaSkolt4pXxlKjqJLKaDYxK9pWiamZWqqZQYFScyGNkYqzT4psQW7_bk_EcZucx3QYj9TxRGW_x2pPXg</recordid><startdate>20210705</startdate><enddate>20210705</enddate><creator>Barlas, Ali B</creator><creator>Mert, Seda Guler</creator><creator>Isa, Berk Orkun</creator><creator>Ortiz, Alvaro</creator><creator>Rodrigo, Tomasa</creator><creator>Soybilgen, Baris</creator><creator>Yazgan, Ege</creator><scope>ADEOX</scope><scope>AKY</scope><scope>GOX</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20210705</creationdate><title>Big Data Information and Nowcasting: Consumption and Investment from Bank Transactions in Turkey</title><author>Barlas, Ali B ; Mert, Seda Guler ; Isa, Berk Orkun ; Ortiz, Alvaro ; Rodrigo, Tomasa ; Soybilgen, Baris ; Yazgan, Ege</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-a679-387f4f542f80084f941ef0e90989ec3d3f76697d5d60c3ea7a8c478ee8943b0a3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2021</creationdate><topic>Computer Science - Learning</topic><topic>Quantitative Finance - Statistical Finance</topic><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Barlas, Ali B</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Mert, Seda Guler</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Isa, Berk Orkun</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ortiz, Alvaro</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Rodrigo, Tomasa</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Soybilgen, Baris</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Yazgan, Ege</creatorcontrib><collection>arXiv Economics</collection><collection>arXiv Computer Science</collection><collection>arXiv.org</collection></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext_linktorsrc</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Barlas, Ali B</au><au>Mert, Seda Guler</au><au>Isa, Berk Orkun</au><au>Ortiz, Alvaro</au><au>Rodrigo, Tomasa</au><au>Soybilgen, Baris</au><au>Yazgan, Ege</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Big Data Information and Nowcasting: Consumption and Investment from Bank Transactions in Turkey</atitle><date>2021-07-05</date><risdate>2021</risdate><abstract>We use the aggregate information from individual-to-firm and firm-to-firm in
Garanti BBVA Bank transactions to mimic domestic private demand. Particularly,
we replicate the quarterly national accounts aggregate consumption and
investment (gross fixed capital formation) and its bigger components (Machinery
and Equipment and Construction) in real time for the case of Turkey. In order
to validate the usefulness of the information derived from these indicators we
test the nowcasting ability of both indicators to nowcast the Turkish GDP using
different nowcasting models. The results are successful and confirm the
usefulness of Consumption and Investment Banking transactions for nowcasting
purposes. The value of the Big data information is more relevant at the
beginning of the nowcasting process, when the traditional hard data information
is scarce. This makes this information specially relevant for those countries
where statistical release lags are longer like the Emerging Markets.</abstract><doi>10.48550/arxiv.2107.03299</doi><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Computer Science - Learning Quantitative Finance - Statistical Finance |
| title | Big Data Information and Nowcasting: Consumption and Investment from Bank Transactions in Turkey |
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