Predictability and suppression of extreme events in complex systems

Predictability and suppression of extreme events in complex systems

In many complex systems, large events are believed to follow power-law, scale-free probability distributions, so that the extreme, catastrophic events are unpredictable. Here, we study coupled chaotic oscillators that display extreme events. The mechanism responsible for the rare, largest events mak...

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Veröffentlicht in:arXiv.org 2013-09
Hauptverfasser: Hugo L D de Souza Cavalcante, Oria, Marcos, Sornette, Didier, Ott, Edward, Gauthier, Daniel J
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Sprache:eng
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Catastrophic events
Complex systems
Oscillators
Physics - Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems
Physics - Chaotic Dynamics
Power law
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Oria, Marcos
Sornette, Didier
Ott, Edward
Gauthier, Daniel J
description In many complex systems, large events are believed to follow power-law, scale-free probability distributions, so that the extreme, catastrophic events are unpredictable. Here, we study coupled chaotic oscillators that display extreme events. The mechanism responsible for the rare, largest events makes them distinct and their distribution deviates from a power-law. Based on this mechanism identification, we show that it is possible to forecast in real time an impending extreme event. Once forecasted, we also show that extreme events can be suppressed by applying tiny perturbations to the system.
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subjects Catastrophic events
Complex systems
Oscillators
Physics - Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems
Physics - Chaotic Dynamics
Power law
title Predictability and suppression of extreme events in complex systems
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