Improved estimation of time-varying reproduction numbers at low case incidence and between epidemic waves von Parag, Kris V

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Risk averse reproduction numbers improve resurgence detection von Parag, Kris V, Obolski, Uri

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Fundamental limits on inferring epidemic resurgence in real time using effective reproduction numbers von Parag, Kris V, Donnelly, Christl A

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Establishment and lineage dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the UK von du Plessis, Louis, McCrone, John T, Zarebski, Alexander E, Hill, Verity, Ruis, Christopher, Gutierrez, Bernardo, Raghwani, Jayna, Ashworth, Jordan, Colquhoun, Rachel, Connor, Thomas R, Faria, Nuno R, Jackson, Ben, Loman, Nicholas J, O'Toole, Áine, Nicholls, Samuel M, Parag, Kris V, Scher, Emily, Vasylyeva, Tetyana I, Volz, Erik M, Watts, Alexander, Bogoch, Isaac I, Khan, Kamran, Aanensen, David M, Kraemer, Moritz U G, Rambaut, Andrew, Pybus, Oliver G

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Spatiotemporal invasion dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 emergence von Kraemer, Moritz U G, Hill, Verity, Ruis, Christopher, Dellicour, Simon, Bajaj, Sumali, McCrone, John T, Baele, Guy, Parag, Kris V, Battle, Anya Lindström, Gutierrez, Bernardo, Jackson, Ben, Colquhoun, Rachel, O'Toole, Áine, Klein, Brennan, Vespignani, Alessandro, Volz, Erik, Faria, Nuno R, Aanensen, David M, Loman, Nicholas J, du Plessis, Louis, Cauchemez, Simon, Rambaut, Andrew, Scarpino, Samuel V, Pybus, Oliver G

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Resurgence of COVID-19 in Manaus, Brazil, despite high seroprevalence von Sabino, Ester C, Buss, Lewis F, Carvalho, Maria P S, Prete, Carlos A, Crispim, Myuki A E, Fraiji, Nelson A, Pereira, Rafael H M, Parag, Kris V, da Silva Peixoto, Pedro, Kraemer, Moritz U G, Oikawa, Marcio K, Salomon, Tassila, Cucunuba, Zulma M, Castro, Márcia C, de Souza Santos, Andreza Aruska, Nascimento, Vítor H, Pereira, Henrique S, Ferguson, Neil M, Pybus, Oliver G, Kucharski, Adam, Busch, Michael P, Dye, Christopher, Faria, Nuno R

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Using information theory to optimise epidemic models for real-time prediction and estimation von Parag, Kris V, Donnelly, Christl A

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An exact method for quantifying the reliability of end-of-epidemic declarations in real time von Parag, Kris V, Donnelly, Christl A, Jha, Rahul, Thompson, Robin N

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Using multiple sampling strategies to estimate SARS-CoV-2 epidemiological parameters from genomic sequencing data von Inward, Rhys P. D., Parag, Kris V., Faria, Nuno R.

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Point process analysis of noise in early invertebrate vision von Parag, Kris V, Vinnicombe, Glenn

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Genomic Epidemiology of Early SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Dynamics, Gujarat, India von Raghwani, Jayna, du Plessis, Louis, McCrone, John T, Hill, Sarah C, Parag, Kris V, Thézé, Julien, Kumar, Dinesh, Puvar, Apurva, Pandit, Ramesh, Pybus, Oliver G, Fournié, Guillaume, Joshi, Madhvi, Joshi, Chaitanya

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Using digital traces to build prospective and real-time county-level early warning systems to anticipate COVID-19 outbreaks in the United States von Stolerman, Lucas M, Clemente, Leonardo, Poirier, Canelle, Parag, Kris V, Majumder, Atreyee, Masyn, Serge, Resch, Bernd, Santillana, Mauricio

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Retrospective evaluation of real-time estimates of global COVID-19 transmission trends and mortality forecasts von Bhatia, Sangeeta, Parag, Kris V, Wardle, Jack, Nash, Rebecca K, Imai, Natsuko, Elsland, Sabine L Van, Lassmann, Britta, Brownstein, John S, Desai, Angel, Herringer, Mark, Sewalk, Kara, Loeb, Sarah Claire, Ramatowski, John, Cuomo-Dannenburg, Gina, Jauneikaite, Elita, Unwin, H Juliette T, Riley, Steven, Ferguson, Neil, Donnelly, Christl A, Cori, Anne, Nouvellet, Pierre

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How to Measure the Controllability of an Infectious Disease? von Parag, Kris V.

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Sub-spreading events limit the reliable elimination of heterogeneous epidemics von Parag, Kris V.

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Impact of spatiotemporal heterogeneity in COVID-19 disease surveillance on epidemiological parameters and case growth rates von Inward, Rhys P.D., Jackson, Felix, Dasgupta, Abhishek, Lee, Graham, Battle, Anya Lindström, Parag, Kris V., Kraemer, Moritz U.G.

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Adaptive Estimation for Epidemic Renewal and Phylogenetic Skyline Models von Parag, Kris V., Donnelly, Christl A.

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On signalling and estimation limits for molecular birth-processes von Parag, Kris V

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Jointly Inferring the Dynamics of Population Size and Sampling Intensity from Molecular Sequences von Parag, Kris V, du Plessis, Louis, Pybus, Oliver G

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Deciphering early-warning signals of SARS-CoV-2 elimination and resurgence from limited data at multiple scales von Parag, Kris V, Cowling, Benjamin J, Donnelly, Christl A

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